ANALYSIS: Hard times ahead for Belarus opposition after EU walkout

By Dominika Maslikowski Oct 1, 2011, 10:37 GMT

Warsaw - The Belarusian government's withdrawal from a European Union event that criticized its regime is expected to spell hard times ahead for the country's opposition as they struggle to form a unified stance and gain the trust of Belarusian society, experts said Friday.

Opposition members said it was a 'mistake' for the Belarusian government to pull out of the summit, noting that the move was a step that distanced Minsk from the EU.

The boycott was an 'expression of powerlessness,' opposition leader Ales Michalevic told the German Press Agency dpa.

Some blamed the regime of Aleksander Lukashenko for spoiling a chance to develop good relations with Brussels.

'Polish and EU leaders did everything that was possible for Belarus to have good contacts with the EU,' opposition leader Vital Rymasheuski told the Polish Press Agency PAP. 'It is only the fault of Belarusian authorities that this didn't happen.'

Belarus' ambassador withdrew from the EU's Eastern Partnership summit in Poland after European leaders harshly criticised Minsk's crackdown on opposition figures. Foreign Minister Sergei Martynov had earlier turned down an invitation to the event in Warsaw.

The partnership is meant to promote integration between the EU and its eastern neighbors, and reach out to nations aspiring to join the 27-member bloc.

Experts said repressions in the former Soviet bloc nation are now likely to worsen. A harsher crackdown could soon be expected on activists who met with EU leaders on the sidelines of the summit, Rymasheuski said.

'For the opposition, this means a continuation of the repression which occurs daily, searches, imprisonments,' said Kamil Klysinski, an expert on Belarus at the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, noting that the country will descend deeper into 'self-isolation.'

Analysts said activists have to unite in that time of hardship and join to form a common stance.

'It is trying to have one, but it should be consequential no matter how long it takes,' Klysinski said. 'The opposition must unite in this hard situation, keep a common line and work towards gaining the trust of Belarusian society.'

But garnering support will not be an easy task as Belarus faces a crumbling economy, analysts said.

Public support for Lukashenko has fallen - from 55 per cent in December to 24 per cent this month - but trust in the opposition has not risen in return.

Thirty-five per cent of respondents to an independent Belarusian poll in September also blamed the United States, the EU or Russia for the financial crisis.

'This is a deeper problem ... Belarusians don't see economic crisis as the fault of Lukashenko, but of the 'bad west,'' said Wojciech Borodzicz-Smolinski, an analyst at the Center for International Relations, a Warsaw-based think-tank.

'This is a problem the opposition must work at - to convince Belarusian society that the economic crisis is the result of bad government,' he added.

The poll also found that 50 per cent of respondents expect life to remain the same or get worse if Lukashenko steps down.

'Today the Belarusian people feel trapped. They do not believe Lukashenko anymore, but they also see no alternatives,' said Yuliya Slutskaya, the director of the Warsaw-based Solidarity with Belarus organization. 'They fear for their own future.'

The opposition must show Belarusians that it is a 'real alternative' to the status quo, then make a concrete proposal to European governments on how much aid to give and where, Borodzicz-Smolinski said.

Poland only managed to overthrow the communist regime when right and left-wing elements managed to unite under the Solidarity labour union of Lech Walesa, he added. Although Solidarity was not perfect, that kind of unity is needed in Minsk.

'They travel in groups of six or seven people who each represent a different party,' he said. 'They try, but they have problems in a unified vision of what Belarus should look like after reforms.'