PREVIEW: Munich conference topics run gamut of security issues

By Niels C Sorrells Feb 1, 2012, 10:31 GMT

Munich - Economists wonder about the effects of the ongoing financial crisis. Energy analysts question the oil supply from an increasingly belligerent Iran. Meanwhile, diplomats worry about ever more strained relations between Pakistan and the West.

But at the core of all those issues are questions of security: will any of these or other events spiral out of control and are the world's armed forces in any position to keep matters in check should they threaten global stability?

These and a host of other topics are all likely to dominate in Munich this weekend when world leaders gather for the annual Munich Security Conference, in its 48th session from February 3-5.

'I hope that the conference early this year will give fresh impetus, especially with regard to the Arab Awakening, the European defence, the question of constructing a comprehensive Euratlantic security community involving Russia and, above else, to our relationship to the emerging major powers in the Asia-Pacific region,' said conference chairman Wolfgang Ischinger in a recent interview with German publication European Security and Technology.

What separates this conference from a regular think tank debate panel is the attendee list. This year's confirmed guests include US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta, US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, World Bank President Robert Zoellick and German Defence Minister Thomas de Maziere.

Watching these people speak - and waiting for them to drop hints about policy into their speeches - are what people come to see. They want to find out if they can get some kind of idea of which way the wind is blowing and what, if any, policy changes are out there.

Thus, when Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin railed against Western supremacy on the global stage in 2007, promising that Russian technology could counter any Western missile defence shield, people sat up and listened.

It's those kinds of moments that will have people coming back to see what the leaders have to say on this year's key topics.

Ischinger has promised discussion about the Arab Spring, with leaders from countries like Egypt and Libya, which were facing or nearing open revolt at the time of the conference last year, set to speak. Syria will also likely dominate conversation, as the country teeters toward civil war.

Discussions about the state of global defence alliances will also likely play a central role, with attention once again targeted on how NATO interacts with Russia.

Given the changing world, NATO needs to redefine its role in the world, said James Stavridis, NATO's supreme allied commander, speaking at an event in advance of the conference.

'NATO does not seek to be a global actor,' he said. 'But we are an actor in a global world.'

But with issues like the missile shield still present, such statements are only likely to lead to more pointed discussions with Russian panelists in Munich.

Ischinger has promised that an academic study that purports to offer a solution to the NATO-Russia stand-off over missile defence will be presented in Munich, again highlighting the chance to throw new ideas before the heads of various establishments.

Such an accord could be useful, with Russian threatening to limit dealings with NATO so long as the shield is on the table. NATO says the shield is needed to protect Europe from possible Iranian aggression.

Stavridis tried to make the point that the focus needs to be on global issues, how to use global ties to make the world safer.

Talk about whether one country - usually the US - was allying itself closer with Europe or Asia was besides the point, he argued.

'We're not in a Pacific century. We're not in a trans-Atlantic century. We're in a global century,' he argued.

That means looking beyond what each country might consider its typical area of influence and looking for ways where cooperation can yield the greatest good. He pointed to international efforts to curb piracy off the Somalian coast or ongoing international efforts to stabilize Afghanistan before Western troops depart it in the coming years.

And these topics are aside from planned panels on technical matters like cyberwar, the fallout from the Arab Spring, what impact the financial crisis will have on global security and Germany's role in the arena of defence.

Observers will be waiting, hoping they can use the chance to get an idea of the shape of things.