PREVIEW: Kosovo elections under the shadow of independence drive

Nov 14, 2007, 2:10 GMT

Pristina - Kosovo holds parliamentary and local elections Saturday, under the huge shadow of talks with Belgrade on the future status of the province which are drawing to a conclusion.

The majority Albanian leaders promised their voters a declaration of independence from Serbia quickly after the negotiations come to the scheduled end on December 10 - even if by unilateral declaration.

But all around - in Kosovo, Serbia and the international community, which has fomented the four-month talks - people are aware that firm promises of independence had been broken before and this is going to cost some Kosovo players in upcoming polls.

The Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), which led the government coalition since 2005, has now dropped to second place, the latest poll by Index Kosova and Gallup indicated.

LDK has failed to overcome the death of its founder, leader and Kosovo president Ibrahim Rugova in early 2006 and has campaigned behind his image and name nearly two years after his death.

Pre-election surveys indicate a dramatic fall of support for LDK, now with a 29 per cent support. It trails Hashim Thaqi's opposition Democratioc Party of Kosovo (PDK) with 31 per cent.

The Alliance New Kosovo (AKR) has 16 per cent, Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) 9 per cent, the Democratic League of Dardania (LDD) 8, and the reformist ORA party 5 per cent, pollsters said.

Albanians make up 90 per cent of the 2.1 million Kosovars and are naturally going to dominate the future parliament, in which 20 of the 120 seats are reserved for minorities.

Of the reserved seats, 10 are kept for the Serbs, despite their boycott of the parliamentary ballot on initiative from Belgrade, which is fiercely trying to block the province's slide to independence.

Albanian leaders are, of course, almost only talking about independence and plans to declare it unilaterally in December - though they promised their people independence already in 2006.

LDK is now likely to pay for the broken promise in the elections by having to move over and make way for Thaqi and PDK, even if it remains in power as a junior partner in the widely anticipated grand coalition of Kosovo's two largest parties.

While LDK continues to totter in a campaign in which it is appealing to voters by handing out catchy lighters with Rugova's image and claiming his 'legacy,' Thaqi has been more concrete by promising independence quickly after international mediators close the talks on December 10.

'If I win, my government will build 300 kilometres of highway, you have my word on it,' he also told the province known for its horrid road conditions, but the 'word' is deemed sacred.

Thaqi has also pledged internet links and 'digitalized environment for every school' - a tall order in the vastly underdeveloped Kosovo.

'I am running to become the next prime minister because that will give me the opportunity to to make a lot of things better,' he said at campaign rallies.

In fact, in Kosovo there is little else but room for improvement, even with the largely disinterested UN administration still standing above the elected Kosovo authorities.

The World Bank estimates that 40 per cent of the population survives on less than 2 dollars per day. Organized crime is rampant, abusing the porous Kosovo borders for the smuggling of everything, from girls to heroin, and corruption is the way of life.

Kosovo has been heavily reliant on outside aid even in former Yugoslavia, when it was the showcase of 'brotherhood and unity.' Aid now accounts for one-fifth of Kosovo's gross-domestic product (GDP).

If it won independence today, Kosovo would tomorrow wake with Europe's smallest per capita GDP of 1,500 dollars, an unemployment rate nearing 50 per cent and illiteracy rate of 10 per cent among men and 20 among women, up to 10 times the regional average.