ANALYSIS: Silence speaks louder than words at NATO-Russia summit

Apr 4, 2008, 15:40 GMT

Bucharest - For all Vladimir Putin's rhetorical flourishes after his meeting with NATO leaders on Friday, the most important comments were the ones the two sides did not make.

Just two months ago, Putin launched a blistering attack on Western foreign policy, accusing the West of harbouring imperialist ambitions against his country and adding a 'new twist to the arms race' with plans to site US missile defences in Central Europe.

But after Friday's meeting of the NATO-Russia Council, that belligerent tone seemed forgotten as he lavished praise on the 'constructive' summit.

'We want to be heard, we want to address concerns together. ... It seems to me that I've been heard today,' he said.

NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer matched his tone, saying: 'I'm not complaining about unhelpful rhetoric today. I'll be critical when it occurs, but it didn't occur this morning.'

Analysts say that the reduction of diplomatic pressure stems from a genuine desire on both sides to ease relationships - at least for the moment.

'The key flash-points have come to a peak over the last couple of months: now there is definitely room for further cooperation,' Matthew Clements, Eurasia security expert at Jane's Information Group, told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.

On Thursday, NATO's heads of state and government gave their blessing to a newly-agreed deal on missile defence between the US and the Czech Republic.

They followed up by declaring unequivocally that Georgia and Ukraine 'will become members of NATO.'

Over the last year, talk such as this has provoked furious replies from Moscow, with top officials even threatening to target nuclear missiles on Europe if the plans were put into practice.

But at that time, Russia was heading into parliamentary and presidential elections, with Putin's administration keen to portray both his political party and his anointed successor, Dmitry Medvedev, as strong defenders of the Motherland.

The elections 'certainly played a key part' in the strident use of language, Clements said, pointing out that 'there is always a rise of nationalist rhetoric before such votes.'

With both elections safely past, experts say that the political imperative has now reversed: rather than needing to show his own people that Russia can stand up to Western 'enemies,' Putin now needs to show Western powers that Russia is not an enemy at all.

'Putin doesn't want to leave stones in Medvedev's path,' Frank Kupferschmidt, NATO-Russia expert at Berlin's SWP Institute for International and Security Affairs, said.

Moreover, Putin, who is due to step down on May 7, is keen to portray his last months as Russia's second president as a success.

And that timing is fortuitous, since US President George W Bush is also turning his thoughts towards the question of his legacy.

Political leaders are 'keener not to leave the impression of 'Thank God he's gone' behind' when they make their last appearance in any international forum, Kupferschmidt pointed out.

Indeed, in recent weeks there has been a marked thawing in the dispute over US missile-defence plans, with rumours circulating that Bush and Putin could come to a deal at a planned meeting on Sunday.

The immediate heat also seems to have gone out of the Georgia- Ukraine question, with NATO leaders refusing to offer the duo a plan for membership at the summit, instead promising them entry at an unspecified future date.

That compromise allowed both Bush and Putin to claim the decision as a victory, thereby avoiding a confrontation, analysts believe.

But despite the thaw, experts are still far from declaring that the springtime of NATO-Russia relations has begun.

Russia still sees US missile-defence plans and NATO's enlargement policy as threatening its strategic interests. And NATO members are becoming increasingly alarmed by Russia's growing power, wealth and desire to assert itself in Europe and the world.

Analysts say that with two such powerful players on the Eurasian stage, clashes are inevitable, and that the most important thing is to find a non-confrontational way of dealing with them.

'There are always going to be differences of opinion: the decisive factor is to find solutions,' Kupferschmidt said.

And that being the case, the lack of Cold War rhetoric on Friday could well be the most important comment of all.