ANALYSIS: Pro-Europeans win Serbian poll, but no government yet

May 12, 2008, 9:47 GMT

Belgrade - Serbian President Boris Tadic's pro-European bloc won the most votes in Sunday's parliamentary elections, but was still far from converting the victory into power a day later.

The coalition led by Tadic's Democratic Party (DS) won 103 seats in the 250-seat Belgrade assembly, leaving their main, ultra- nationalist rivals, the Serbian radical Party (SRS) in the dust with 77.

Previously tipped to win the most votes, the Radicals fell victim to their own promise that they would turn Serbia away from the European Union (EU) by scrapping a recently signed pre-membership deal, along with the prospects of billions of dollars in investments and aid.

So the outcome clearly signalled that the majority of Serbs are unwilling to give up aspirations of EU membership and prosperity, as planned by nationalist leaders, including the outgoing Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica.

But although Tadic loudly celebrated his triumph, he was bracing for hard and uncertain talks with the other four groups that made it to the assembly.

The only other pro-European party in the assembly, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), won only 13 seats, so the DS fell short of mustering the necessary 126 votes for a two-way coalition, even if all seven ethnic minority representatives sided with it.

Fiercely critical of the slow pace of reforms in Serbia, the LDP is not on speaking terms with any party other than the DS, from which it splintered - and just barely with the DS. That effectively scuppers a coalition with the DS.

The late strongman Slobodan Milosevic's Socialist Party of Serbia, with 20 seats, currently figures as the only one in parliament with a potential to ally with either of the camps.

Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS), which sank to 30 seats, has moved close to an alliance with the SRS under its leader, who has become openly hostile to the West, including the EU, over its support of Kosovo's independence.

With Milosevic's party, the SRS and the DSS could muster an anti- Western parliamentary majority of 127 seats - one which would annul the Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU and suppress ties with rich Western nations that have recognized Kosovo since it split from Serbia.

The Socialists may also ally with the DS and ethnic minority representatives, also for a majority of 127 seats, but one which would keep Serbia on course to EU membership.

SPS leader Ivica Dacic on Sunday stood by his pre-election promise to open coalition talks with the DSS, but refused to commit beyond that.

Kostunica has already ruled out cooperation with Tadic, citing 'irreconcilable differences' after their uneasy coalition government collapsed in March after just 10 months.

But if the SPS were game for a deal with the SRS, it is questionable whether the tottering DSS would follow its leader in a full turn away from the EU after many of its voters signalled that European wealth was more important to them than the Kosovo issue.

So, despite the clear pro-European signal sent by the voters on Sunday, Tadic and the DS triumphed without winning outright and Serbia is facing long and hard talks - within parties and possible coalition partners - until a new government is in place.

Repeat elections are also a distinct possibility, in case the talks fail to produce a functioning majority within the legal deadline, which may be extended until as late as September.

'If there is no government of SRS, DSS and SPS, there will be new elections,' the SRS leader Tomislav Nikolic said Sunday night.

All of the parties in parliament, excluding the LDP, already worked together to pass a controversial new constitution 18 months ago, largely wiping out the line between parties of Milosevic's regime and their opponents in the process.

After Sunday, it seems certain that Tadic and the ultra- nationalists would in no case forge a coalition and that the LDP appear to be the pariahs in the upcoming parliament - all other combinations, including a repeat vote, are possible.