ANALYSIS: Serbia's road to West tricky despite Karadzic capture

By Tony Czuczka Jul 22, 2008, 15:22 GMT

Vienna - Serbia's arrest of Bosnian war crimes suspect Radovan Karadzic moves the Balkan nation toward acceptance by the West, but it also carries risks.

The capture of the man charged with launching genocide in Bosnia in the 1990s came at a critical point in European Union efforts to draw Serbia into the EU and promote Balkan stability, a goal shared by the United States.

Now the question is whether the two-week-old Belgrade government has the stamina to deliver the two remaining war crimes suspects.

First and foremost, that means former Bosnian Serb general Ratko Mladic, who supervised the slaughter of thousands of Bosnian Muslims at Srebrenica in 1995.

EU foreign ministers Tuesday welcomed the Karadzic's arrest after 12 years on the run as 'an important step' and urged Serbia to 'continue on this path.'

At stake is Serbia's pre-membership pact with the EU, which Brussels says it will approve only if the UN tribunal for war crimes in former Yugoslavia certifies 'full' Serbian cooperation in bringing Balkan suspects to justice.

'I think we have to talk to the international prosecutor, and I am certain that he is going to say there is full cooperation,' EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said in Brussels.

But French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner was more cautious. 'We shouldn't jump to conclusions,' said Kouchner, whose country is chairing the EU. 'Karadzic is under arrest, Mladic is not.'

Mladic and Karadzic, the top wartime Bosnian Serb leader, have been indicted by The Hague-based tribunal on charges including genocide for his role in Bosnia's 1992-95 war.

Monday's arrest led to speculation that time is running out for Mladic, especially since Serbia recently turned over two of his aides to The Hague, a sign that his once powerful support network is dwindling.

Dusan Reljic, a Balkans analyst at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, forecast that 'things will come to a conclusion soon.'

Previous Serbian governments have turned over war crimes suspects to The Hague, including former strongman Slobodan Milosevic, who backed bloody Serb revolts as Yugoslavia fell apart.

Now, Serbia's new government, led by President Boris Tadic's pro- European bloc, has set a strikingly ambitious timetable for joining the EU, which implies cooperation with The Hague. Under the plan, Serbia would apply to the EU on September 15 and open membership talks next year.

But Belgrade commentators said Karadzic's arrest could strain the just-settled governing coalition, which includes the Socialist Party founded by Milosevic.

Meanwhile, the hardline nationalist opposition in Serbia's parliament has used procedural moves to stall the pre-membership Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU.

While polls say 70 per cent of Serbs support joining the EU, opposition politicians Tuesday denounced the government for arresting Karadzic and defended him as a patriotic hero.

For many Serbs, the main sentiment was disbelief. 'I thought he was dead or that he will die in hiding,' said Maja, a 30-year-old Belgrade woman who declined to give her last name. 'I'm so shocked.'

Karadzic, 63, surprised Serbs with how he looked on a recent photo released by the authorities, sporting a white mane, long beard and glasses that made him look like a professor or 19th-century writer.

A trained psychiatrist, he reportedly worked with an alternative healing group in Belgrade, even giving public lectures.

'His false identity was so convincing,' Serbian war crimes prosecutor Vladimir Vukcevic said. 'People didn't recognize him.'