PREVIEW: EU faces tough talks on Russia, Belarus

Oct 9, 2008, 14:34 GMT

Brussels - The European Union's foreign ministers face tough talks on Monday when they meet in Luxembourg to debate whether or not to push for closer ties with Russia and Belarus.

The ministers are set to discuss, in particular, whether the bloc should re-open talks with Moscow on a wide-ranging strategic deal, which EU leaders froze after August's Russian occupation of Georgia, and whether the EU should push for closer ties with Minsk, despite a general election which observers saw as deeply flawed.

Both issues are controversial. Some EU states say that neither country has done enough to earn a warmer relationship with Europe.

Officially, the meeting is set to 'take stock of the political situation' in Georgia and its breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia following the deployment of EU monitors to the area on October 1 and the subsequent pull-out of Russian troops.

But diplomats say that it is likely to become a test of strength between those member states who want a quick relaunch of talks and those who hold that Russia has not yet done enough to deserve closer ties.

On September 1, EU leaders at an emergency summit on the Georgian- Russian war decided that the bloc would suspend talks on a planned Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) with Russia 'until troops have withdrawn to the positions held prior to 7 August.'

One week later, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev agreed to pull his troops out of Georgia itself if EU monitors stepped in. But 24 hours later he announced that his country was going to more than double the number of its troops in the breakaway regions.

The decision split EU opinion. Some member states, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, argue that the troop build-up in Abkhazia and South Ossetia meant that Russia had not 'withdrawn to the positions held' before the war broke out.

But others, especially in Western Europe, point out that Russia has long maintained troops in the breakaway zones, and that therefore a withdrawal from the so-called 'buffer zones' adjacent to Abkhazia and South Ossetia would be enough to justify reopening talks.

Diplomats stress that no decision on the issue is expected before a summit of EU leaders on Wednesday, but that the foreign ministers' debate will indicate whether an agreement is likely.

Also on Monday, EU ministers are set to discuss whether they should lift or lighten their current visa bans on top Belarusian officials as a response to Minsk's decision over the summer to release its last political prisoners.

Officials say that EU member states are keen to encourage Belarus to take a pro-Western path in the wake of the Georgian conflict.

Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb, current holder of the presidency of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), on October 7 said that it was 'time to turn the page in Belarusian-European relations.'

But some states point out that OSCE observers ruled that parliamentary elections in Belarus on September 28 'fell short of OSCE commitments for democratic elections' and insist that the EU should not make any move until Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko passes democratic reforms.

Belarus Foreign Minister Sergei Martynov has been invited to meet EU officials on the margins of the talks, but diplomats say that it is not yet clear whether he will attend.