ANALYSIS: Merkel victory to strengthen German role, Britain believes

By Anna Tomforde Sep 28, 2009, 13:54 GMT

   London - The vote of confidence Germany has placed in Chancellor Angela Merkel is viewed with a mixture of envy and admiration by Britain's political leaders facing a crucial electoral test in 2010.

   For the ruling Labour Party of embattled Prime Minister Gordon Brown the demise of Germany's Social Democrats in Sunday's election is an unwelcome reminder of the diminishing role of social democracy in European politics.

   The 23 per cent gained by the Social Democrats are just a few points below the 26-per-cent predictions for Labour in Britain in current opinion polls.

   Coupled with Brown's poor personal popularity ratings, critics have warned that Labour could be heading for a 'disaster' in the next general election, which must take place before June, 2010.

Brown, who has not seen eye to eye with Merkel over the extent and duration of massive government bail-out schemes for the economy, said in his congratulatory message that he was looking forward to continuing the 'close working relationship' with the government in Berlin - a low key choice from the dictionary of diplomatic phrasing.

The newspapers, meanwhile, were exuberant about Merkel's success, attributed by commentators to her steadiness, quiet competence, reserve and refusal to resort to 'gimmicks to spin her policies.'

'Ms Merkel's victory is a vote of confidence that few other current European leaders could expect,' said the Times.

If, as widely expected, Britain will see a switch to the Conservatives in next year's election, Tory leader David Cameron will not find Merkel an easy partner.

Britain's Conservatives are likely to be at loggerheads with a future centre-right government in Berlin over crucial European issues, such as the Lisbon Treaty and the admission of Turkey as a full member - a prospect ruled out by Berlin and backed by the Tories.

On Afghanistan, the departure of the Social Democrats from the coalition government and their replacement by the Free Democrats has led British experts to express cautious hope for a possible change in attitude to increasing troop levels, while at the same time cooperating with Britain and others on an exit strategy.

The new mandate won by Merkel will enable her to govern more forcefully, said the Guardian newspaper, which expects her to be more firm in putting national interest first.

The Times also believes the new German government is likely to become more assertive on the world stage, and that its voice will carry more weight internationally.

'Expect few surprises from this quietly powerful leader. Expect instead new confidence in Berlin that will help all its allies,' said the paper in an editorial.