ANALYSIS: Berlusconi loses shield but will he lose power?

By Peter Mayer Oct 8, 2009, 12:40 GMT

Rome - In his customary brash style, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has vowed to keep governing despite a ruling by the country's Constitutional Court that strips him of immunity from prosecution.

'I will show Italians what pasta I'm made of. We will go forward with even more strength than before,' Berlusconi said, referring to the remaining four years of his term in office.

The day after the Constitutional Court's verdict, most analysts from across Italy's political spectrum saw no fault with this part of the premier's reasoning.

After all, they noted, Berlusconi, long-dogged by legal woes, still emerged from the 2008 general elections with a solid parliamentary majority.

This consensus was confirmed by his conservative coalition's strong showing in European elections earlier this year.

Also, recent salacious media revelations on his private life, though drawing against him criticism from the Catholic Church and the opposition, have resulted in only a slight dip in his popularity, according to opinion polls.

These include his wife's decision to divorce after accusing him of improper relations with underage women, and allegations by a self-confessed prostitute that she spent a night with him after being paid, along with other women, to attend Berlusconi's private parties.

The Constitutional Court's ruling however, is set to re-activate several legal proceedings involving the premier, suspended following the introduction of the immunity law last year.

In one, a trial in Milan, the premier's co-defendant, British tax lawyer David Mills - convicted of accepting a bribe in exchange for giving false testimony on behalf of Berlusconi - has already received a four-and-a-half year sentence.

The scrapping of the immunity law means that Berlusconi's alleged deeds or misdeeds, will no longer be just the stuff of opinion polls, television political chat shows and newspaper articles.

Instead some will once again become the subject of investigations by prosecutors and verdicts by the country's magistrates.

It is situation destined to 'weigh' on Italy's future, the moderate liberal daily, Corriere della Sera said in an editorial.

'The paradox of a leader consecrated by the popular vote, but who risks being damaged by a ruling that places him once again in the courtrooms,' the Corriere della Sera said.

The fear of seeing the premier back in the dock explains, but does not justify his and his allies' 'exaggerated reaction' to the Constitutional Court's ruling, said left-leaning daily La Repubblica.

Berlusconi branded the Court judges as 'leftist' and accused Italy's widely respected President Giorgio Napolitano, a former Communist, of influencing the Court's 'political verdict'.

He also vowed to fight his battles in court, even if these 'farcical trials' stand to 'cost me and cost Italy,' by drawing attention and energies away from dealing with the country's problems, Berlusconi said.

Several analysts stressed how in his previous term in office, the premier was able to juggle both his commitments in court with his government obligations.

Admittedly, the 'international echo around the Berlusconi saga promises to increase to a deafening level,' the Corriere della Sera said, referring to the foreign media's coverage of Berlusconi's sex scandal.

But for Berlusconi what is more important is the ongoing support of his allies, the Corriere della Sera added.

This because the continuing weakness of the centre-left opposition which is mired a leadership struggle means it is not a serious candidate to govern the country.

Umberto Bossi the often unpredictable leader of the government coalition's junior but pivotal partner the Northern League, has so far ruled out a return to the polls.

His party's priority, Bossi said, is to push through parliament its proposed federalist reforms.

Berlusconi is thus likely to make more concessions to the Northern League, not just on issues of regional administrative and fiscal autonomy, but also on other polices dear to the party such as measures to curb immigration.

For now the media-magnate turned politician may be bruised but he is far from beaten.