ANALYSIS: Rocky road ahead for Turkish-Armenian reconciliation

By Yigal Schleifer Oct 8, 2009, 15:40 GMT

Istanbul - Turkey and Armenia are expected to sign a set of protocols in Zurich on Saturday that will lead towards the renewal of diplomatic relations after decades of hostility.

The signing has the potential to serve as a watershed moment for the troubled Caucasus region, but experts warn that serious hurdles stand in the way of the two countries actually opening up their borders.

Ankara and Yerevan broke off relations in 1993 when Turkey closed its border with Armenia after it invaded the Azerbaijan territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. But the animosity goes backs decades further to what Armenia alleges was the genocide of an estimated 1.5 million Armenians under the Ottoman Turks during World War I.

Turkey insists only some 200,000 were killed and fiercely rejects any allegations of genocide. While admitting that massacres did take place, Turkey says they did not constitute genocide but were instead the result of a civil uprising when Armenians joined forces with invading Russians.

The protocols to be signed call for the renewal of diplomatic ties, opening of the common border and the establishment of a historical commission to investigate the events during World War I.

The only catch, analysts point out, is that the protocols will only go into effect once the parliaments in both countries ratify them. And in both Turkey and Armenia, domestic opposition could stand in the way of that happening.

'The road to restoring Turkish-Armenian relations is rocky,' says Amanda Akcakoca, a Turkey expert at The European Policy Centre, a Brussels-based think tank.

'Signing it is not the same thing as having it ratified in parliament. That's going to be the hard part.'

In Turkey, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue could stand in the way of the protocols' ratification. Turkey is Azerbaijan's strongest ally, and Ankara imposed its economic blockade on Armenia in 1993 to support Baku's efforts to retain control over Karabakh.

During a May 14 address to the Azerbaijani parliament, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared 'that the border between Turkey and Armenia will be open only after the full liberation of Azerbaijani occupied territories.'

Although the recently released protocols make no mention of a linkage between the normalization of Turkish-Armenian ties and the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, parliamentarians from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) have warned that it would be hard to pass the protocols without any progress on that issue.

The Armenian government, meanwhile, has had to contend with strong opposition to the deal with Turkey, both domestically and from its large diaspora.

In response, Armenian President Serzh Sargsian embarked on a weeklong intercontinental charm offensive to sell the deal with Turkey, but Armenian groups in France, the United States and Lebanon still held vocal protests against the protocols.

Although Turkish officials have said they have 'no doubt' that Ankara will sign the protocols on Saturday, there is some question in diplomatic circles now regarding Yerevan's attendance. As of late Thursday, Armenia had yet to confirm its participation.

Sargsian has also yet to announce if he will attend an October 14 World Cup qualifying match between the Turkish and Armenian national teams in Bursa, Turkey. A previous game between the two teams last year in Yerevan was attended by Turkish president Abdullah Gul.

Experts believe, though, that Armenia has too much to lose by not signing the protocols. Restoring relations with Turkey would bring Armenia out of its isolation in the region and could provide the cash-strapped country with new economic opportunities.

'A non-show by the Armenians would rebound on them in a negative way. The stage has been set - the Americans support this, the European Union supports this,' says Semih Idiz, a columnist who covers foreign affairs for Milliyet, a Turkish daily newspaper.

For Turkey, an EU-candidate country which has ambitions to play a larger political and diplomatic role in the surrounding region and to establish itself as an important energy transit route, restoring ties with Armenia is also critical.

'The invasion of Georgia last summer really concentrated minds in the region. Energy routes are the biggest game in town, and you need security and stability and access for that. Restoring relations with Armenia can create all kinds of synergy for regional cooperation and stability,' says Idiz.

'Restoring relations brings more credibility for the role that Turkey wants to play in the region. It brings credibility to the vision of zero problems with neighbors and for cooperating in the region and Turkey gains credibility in terms of its EU dimension.'