PREVIEW: Croats, awash in apathy, head to presidential polls again

By Boris Raseta Jan 7, 2010, 2:08 GMT

Zagreb - Croats are to vote for their next president Sunday, the choice being between the classy but dull Social Democrat (SPD) Ivo Josipovic and the colourful, unrefined populist Zagreb Mayor Milan Bandic.

Amid widespread voter apathy, Josipovic soundly won the first round of the vote on December 27, but fell well short of claiming 50 per cent of all votes cast to sweep the elections in a first round.

Latest public opinion surveys again predict a massive win for Josipovic, giving him around 55 per cent support to 35-44 per cent for Bandic, with the rest still undecided.

Josipovic, 52, has campaigned behind a promise of a 'new justice' for Croatia, now on the threshold of EU membership, but is plagued by corruption and is buckling under the pressure of the economic crisis.

'In Croatia there is justice only for the 'suitable' and the rich - whose fortune is rooted in corruption,' Josipovic said. 'I cannot accept that.'

Bandic, 54, was a member of the conservative wing in the opposition SPD until the party kicked him out for insisting on opposing Josipovic, the official candidate, in the presidential elections.

Known for his lack of diplomatic finesse and gaffes, which often draw ridicule and sometimes sympathy, Bandic offers a broad mix of promises in a bid to appeal to voters in every part of the political spectrum, though in the last two weeks he mostly addressed nationalists.

Josipovic has two university degrees, one in classical music and the other in law, in which he also holds a PhD. He also speaks English and German. Bandic has finished a lowly-regarded school of civil defence and speaks no foreign languages.

The final stage of campaign for Sunday's vote - which had already drawn limited interest - was fully overshadowed by turmoil in the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), which on Monday expelled its former leader and premier, Ivo Sanader, a day after he attempted a comeback from retirement.

Sanader had used the HDZ runner Andrija Hebrang's fiasco in the elections to try a coup in the party against his successor and now Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor.

The clash of Kosor with her former mentor, who stunningly resigned without a proper explanation in July, sent shockwaves through the ruling coalition and raised the prospect of early elections.

Kosor managed to keep her party under control, ousted Sanader and apparently discredited Josipovic's prediction this week that 'one of his first actions in office' may be to schedule elections.

In any case, Josipovic first has to defeat Bandic. Despite the forecasts, the outcome is now less certain, as the gap has narrowed dramatically since the first round, when he won 32 per cent of the votes to Bandic's 15 per cent. Turnout was a miserable 44 per cent.

The race is open also because Croatia has a volatile electorate - owing to its liberal dual-citizenship laws it also has as many voters as it has inhabitants. Out of the 4.5 million Croat voters, 400,000 live abroad, 300,000 of them in the neighbouring Bosnia.

That part of the electorate traditionally backs the nationalists and is a reservoir which Bandic has tried to reach over the past two weeks and hopes to tap on Sunday.

Both runners have faced strong criticism - Josipovic for his lack of charisma and apparently energy, Bandic for his reputed tolerance for corruption and close links with tycoons who built their empires on shadowy deals during the war in the 1990s.

But though Bandic is also supported by the influential Catholic Church, most analysts agree that Josipovic is a sounder choice for Croatia if it intends to crack down on corruption en route to EU membership.

Voting begins at 7 am (0600 GMT) on Sunday and ends 12 hours later. Initial results are expected hours later, due to the large number of ballots counted abroad.