PREVIEW: Hungary's government eyes consolidate power in local polls

Oct 2, 2010, 11:42 GMT

   Budapest - Hungarians are set to head for the ballot boxes for the second time this year on Sunday for local elections that Prime Minister Viktor Orban has cast as a vote of confidence in his new centre-right government.

   Orban's Fidesz-Christian Democrat alliance ousted the governing Socialists in a landslide win in April's general elections. Fidesz is seen as likely to make further gains this weekend at the local level.

   With a two-thirds majority in parliament, Fidesz has undertaken sweeping structural reforms, put its own men in dozens of public offices and is working on a rewrite of the Hungarian constitution.

   The opposition has complained that bills are being railroaded through Parliament with little or no consultation, while some measures, such as centralizing control of state-owned media, have raised international concern.

   However, Fidesz's approval ratings remain high, and the party is expected to make another clean sweep, give or take a village mayor or two, on Sunday.

   Local councillors and mayors will be elected in hundreds of towns and villages, some so small that most Hungarians would have difficulty finding them on a map.

   With Fidesz expected to do well in the provinces, the big prize, particularly for the left-wing and liberal opposition, is the capital Budapest, home to almost one in five Hungarians.

   Budapest's liberal mayor, Gabor Demszky, is standing down after a remarkable two decades in office - ever since the first free elections after the collapse of Hungary's Communist dictatorship.

   Demszky's former party, the Alliance of Free Democrats, sank without a trace in April's general election amid a general swing to the right.

   The Fidesz candidate, Istvan Tarlos, looks unassailable, with several opinion polls putting support at over 50 per cent.

   The Socialist candidate, Csaba Horvath, is calling for Budapest to remain a 'last bastion' of freedom in a country dominated by Fidesz.

   Another question is how well the far-right will fare. Nationalist party Jobbik won 47 of 386 seats in the Hungarian Parliament in general elections in April.

   Support for the far-right is particularly high in rural areas with large Roma populations, where Jobbik rhetoric about cracking down on 'Gypsy crime' is well-received by many voters.

   It remains to be seen whether Budapest voters will be tempted by Jobbik candidate Gabor Staudt's promise of a local gendarmerie to ensure law and order and a pledge to hide the city's extensive tram network underground.

   The green-liberal party LMP will be hoping to build on the modest success in April's election, in which it won 16 seats in Parliament less than two years after it was formed as a grass roots alternative to the established parties.

   LMP mayoral hopeful Benedek Javor has stated that the realistic aim in the capital is to ensure that Fidesz does not win an outright majority and is forced to negotiate local policy.

   Nationwide, the Hungarian Socialist Party, which saw its representation slashed to just 59 seats in April, is fighting to remain a credible opposition party.

   Opinion polls and experience from April's general election suggest that the Socialists could be beaten into third place in many constituencies.

   Of intense interest to many outside Hungary is that, with local elections out of the way, the governing Fidesz party cannot delay for much longer releasing details of its 2011 budget plans.

   In a major policy U-turn, the government recently pledged to stick to the budget deficit target of 3.8 per cent this year and under the 3 per cent in 2011 approved by the International Monetary Fund and the European Union.

   The government is promising tax reform - including a 'flat' income tax rate of 16 per cent - and Orban has pledged no more austerity for ordinary Hungarians.

   All eyes in Brussels and Washington will be watching when the Hungarian government finally reveals how it intends to achieve this.