ANALYSIS: NATO: Coming soon to a conflict near you?

By Ben Nimmo Nov 19, 2010, 21:33 GMT

Lisbon - To defend Europe and North America, NATO must improve its ability to fight wars elsewhere: that is the logic which underpins its new strategic blueprint for the next 10 years.

Some commentators describe the new strategy as a bid to become 'the world's policeman.' But analysts say the strategic concept is far more about forcing NATO members to reform their armies - and that the last thing the alliance wants is to fight another long-range war.

'The idea of giving NATO the role of global policeman was really pushed by the US a decade ago, when NATO was seen as a success story in the post-Cold War era. ... Afghanistan has really cooled down everyone's enthusiasm for it,' said Etienne de Durand, head of security studies at the French Institute for International Relations.

The strategic concept, approved by NATO leaders in Lisbon on Friday, makes its point very clearly: in order to defend its members, the alliance has to be able to fight enemies anywhere in the world.

'Crises and conflicts beyond NATO's borders can pose a direct threat to (NATO) security ... NATO will therefore engage, where possible and when necessary, to prevent crises, manage crises, stabilize post-conflict situations and support reconstruction,' it reads.

At first glance, that looks like a carte blanche for NATO to intervene in conflict zones around the world.

Dmitry Rogozin, Russia's outspoken ambassador to NATO, certainly thinks so, telling Russian newspaper Kommersant ahead of the summit that NATO wants to 'go everywhere and be everywhere' and act as 'the world's policeman.'

But analysts say that the twin shocks of the Afghan conflict - by far the bloodiest operation in NATO history - and the economic crisis have clipped the wings of any such ambition.

'The reality is that, after Afghanistan, nobody will be at all anxious to go out of area anywhere for a number of years,' said Nick Witney, senior policy fellow of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank.

The concept says that local defence may require a distant campaign. But it also says the best preparation is to invest in modernizing, upgrading and linking different nations' forces - all elements that are vital to any battle, no matter how far or near.

'The capacities that NATO is talking about are the sort of things you need for everything, regardless of where you're operating. So defence reform is about saving money and spending what you do have on the right things, not the wrong things,' Witney said.

That is a crucial distinction, because the concept comes as all NATO members are facing the spectre of dramatic budget cuts.

Indeed, far from increasing the number of NATO allies, which are capable of running distant operations, the next decade is likely to see even those who currently can finding it harder to manage.

'Even for the ones who have been traditionally capable of (operating far from home), it will become tougher and tougher,' de Durand said.

The emphasis over the next decade is likely to be much more on keeping NATO forces able to fight at all than it is to be on sending them far from home.

'The fundamental job, which is much more important than designating the next enemy, is making sure that the allies can inter- operate and be effective if they have to fight side by side,' Witney said.

Even if the financial problems begin to ease, any future foreign deployment would have to win the backing of NATO voters, who are already more than weary of the Afghan war.

'It's not ultimately capacities or resources that will act as a restraint, but political will: public support in NATO states is likely to become a pressing issue long before financing does,' Witney pointed out.

NATO may, indeed, spend the next decade enabling its forces to fight wars on the other side of the world. But do not expect them to deploy there any time soon.

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