ANALYSIS: New START offers "modest" nuclear reductions

By Mike McCarthy Dec 22, 2010, 20:37 GMT

Washington - The nuclear arms reduction pact ratified by the US Senate on Wednesday does more to smooth US-Russian relations than it actually does to cut the number of deployed nuclear warheads each side has pointed at the other, analysts say.

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or New START, calls for a 30 per cent reduction in the number of active warheads, in contrast to past treaties that required slashes of about 50 per cent. The United States and Russia will still have vast nuclear arsenals even after they implement the new accord within the mandated seven-year time frame.

'It just scratches the surface' on cutting the size of the each country's nuclear prowess, said Hans Kristensen, an atomic weapons expert at the Federation of American Scientists in Washington who closely monitors nuclear weapons stockpiles. He noted the size of the reductions have not offended the US and Russian militaries, who have voiced support for New START.

'The fact that the militaries on both sides are so in favour of this treaty shows it doesn't rock the boat,' Kristensen said.

But Kristensen and other experts say the true underlying value in the pact is that it promotes stability in the relationship. Primarily, it will allow each side to resume inspections of each other's nuclear warheads to ensure compliance. Verification was suspended when New START's 1991 predecessor expired a year ago.

Ratifying New START has been a top priority for President Barack Obama since he signed the accord with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in April. He has presented it as the cornerstone to 'reset' relations with Russia.

Reaching the agreement with Moscow on New START has already paid off with a greater Russian willingness to logistically support US and NATO troops in Afghanistan, and back UN sanctions in July against Iran over its nuclear activities.

'This treaty is somewhat modest in the number of warheads being reduced,' said Greg Thielmann, a senior analyst at the Arms Control Association in Washington. 'But the benefit of it and the cooperation under it is one of the things that permits, for example, the kind of progress we've had with the Russians the last couple of years.'

The treaty could also lay the groundwork for future negotiations to potentially reduce the number of battlefield - or tactical - nuclear weapons not covered under New START, the analysts said.

Russia's stockpile of tactical arms greatly outsizes the US arsenal - by some estimates by a 10 to one ratio. The issue was a basis for Senate Republicans who opposed the treaty. They sought unsuccessfully to insert language to address their concerns, a move that would have scuttled the treaty and forced the Obama administration to reopen negotiations with the Kremlin.

In the end, the Senate voted 71-26 to approve the pact, clearing the two-thirds threshold required under the US Constitution.

New START focuses on longer range strategic weapons, but analysts believe tactical nuclear arms potentially pose a greater threat to non-proliferation. Obama has said he would like to initiate talks with the Russians to reduce the numbers. The issue has not been formally addressed between the two sides since 1987. The Russians, however, prefer to keep their tactical weapons to offset the superiority of conventional US and NATO militaries.

'Controlling US and Russian tactical nuclear weapons would reduce the potential for nuclear terrorism, decrease the perceived threat to US allies and maintain momentum toward Obama's goal of a world without nuclear weapons,' Micah Zenko of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Washington think tank, said.

New START calls on both sides to reduce the strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 within seven years. The United States currently has 1,950 compared to Russia's 2,500, according to estimates provided by Kristensen.

But the United States will be required to make deeper cuts to delivery systems for nuclear weapons, which include intercontinental ballistic missiles, sea-launched missiles, and planes carrying nuclear bombs or cruise missiles. Under the treaty, both countries must collectively cut those systems to 700.

Russia is already below that number, Kristensen said, largely because Moscow has about 100 fewer ICBMs. About half of Russia's ICBMs carry multiple warheads, while a much smaller percentage of the US fleet does.

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