Risk-aversion holds Germany back in UN's Libya vote

By Helen Maguire Mar 18, 2011, 16:56 GMT

Berlin - Germany stood out as the only European country to abstain in the UN Security Council vote on military action against the Libyan regime, highlighting its fundamental aversion to risk.

'German society in general is risk averse,' said Christian Tuschhoff, a foreign policy expert at Berlin's Free University, explaining that the cause was partly historical, but was also rooted in German values.

'Individual risks are not socially accepted ... people are insured against all eventualities,' he told the German Press Agency dpa.

The UN resolution passed late Thursday with 10 votes in favour and five abstentions including China, Russia, Brazil and India. Germany made it clear that it would have no part in any ensuing military operation against the regime of Libyan leader Moamer Gaddafi.

German leaders argued the implementation of a no-fly zone was a poorly conceived plan that would entail civilian casualties, and could ultimately commit troops to a war in the northern African state.

'There is no such thing as a so-called surgical intervention. Every military intervention also demands civilian victims, we know this from painful experience,' Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle told parliament after the vote.

However, Chancellor Angela Merkel said Friday that Germany could participate in NATO missions to monitor airspace over Afghanistan, in order to free up other nations' troops for a military intervention in Libya.

The legacy of World War II has left Germans with little appetite for military campaigns.

Germans still have uncomfortable memories of their participation in NATO airstrikes during the Kosovo conflict in 1999 - the country's first post-war military intervention.

In 2003, Germany broke its transatlantic alliance to oppose the US invasion of Iraq. As a NATO member, it is part of the bloc's mission in Afghanistan, but this also lacks public support and is a constant source of political conflict.

'We must consider the lessons learned from recent history, and from recent military interventions, in the decisions we are presented with today,' Westerwelle said.

Just three months into a two-year stint on the UN Security Council, however, Germany's refusal to back the resolution on Libya could come at a heavy price.

Germany, which has also campaigned for a permanent UN seat, has trumpeted its growing responsibility on the international stage during the past six months.

'Compared to the zeal with which Germany began its two-year stint at the UN Security Council, this is quite a setback,' said Henning Riecke, an expert on transatlantic relations at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

'The fact that we are placing our hands in our laps because we are so wedded to our principles will damage us in the international alliance,' he told dpa.

Germany's abstention was in marked contrast to France and Britain, who not only voted in favour of military intervention but showed readiness to act hours later.

'This shows that the EU's common foreign and defence policy is always paralysed on the key issues, and Germany is not without blame in this regard,' Tuschhoff said.

Riecke said Germany lacked the 'political leadership' to convince the public of the need for military intervention in Libya, adding that 'Germany will pay a price in foreign policy.'

Tushhoff went a step further, arguing that the country had given up hope of a permanent UN seat.

'This decision shows not only that Germany is not ready (to assume greater international responsibility), but also that it considers its aspirations for a permanent seat to be hopeless and will no longer pursue this goal.'

Germany's aversion to risk was nowhere more evident than in its reaction to the nuclear disaster unfolding in Japan, Tuschhoff said.

Within days, Merkel decided to suspend Germany's oldest reactors and re-evaluate the country's nuclear programme, while people rushed to buy Geiger counters and iodine tablets.

Merkel's coalition faces defeat in key regional elections this month. Of three state elections, the most important is the southern state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, where Merkel's Christian Democrats could lose power for the first time in post-war history.

'In this pre-election period, (the government) can afford least to infringe on these public taboo issues,' Tuschhoff said.

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