PREVIEW: Danish politics set for shake-up after elections

By Lennart Simonsson Sep 12, 2011, 2:06 GMT

Copenhagen - Denmark could elect its first woman prime minister at the helm of a left-leaning coalition if latest opinion polls are confirmed in Thursday's general election.

That would end an era. Denmark has since 2001 been led by a centre-right minority government consisting of Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen's Liberal Party and its junior partner, the Conservatives. The two parties have had to rely on the external support of the Danish People's Party, which has used its role to strongly influence the government's tough immigration policies.

This election campaign, however, has been dominated by the economy.

Shortly before Rasmussen called the elections on August 26, the government presented its draft budget projecting a deficit for 2012 of 85 billion kroner (16 billion dollars), or 4.6 per cent of gross domestic product. For this year the deficit was estimated at 3.8 per cent. Statistics Denmark, a statistical institute, recently reported economic growth in the second quarter at just 1.0 per cent.

Opposition leader Helle Thorning-Schmidt of the Social Democrats says the economy needs a 'kickstart' and would promote investments in infrastructure and the education sector if elected.

Rasmussen - a former finance minister - has pledged to continue the government's 'responsible' fiscal policy and warns that the opposition's plan would raise taxes and debt.

The 47-year-old has been premier since April 2009 succeeding Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who stepped down to become head of NATO.

Judging by recent opinion polls Thorning-Schmidt, 44, could become the new premier. She has secured support from the Socialist People's Party as well as the Social Liberals and Unity List to head a possible government.

According to a poll by research group Megafon carried out five days before the election, the leftist bloc could win 93 seats, enough for a majority in the 179-seat legislature.

When he called the elections, Rasmussen said he wanted to continue to rule with the Conservatives, ruling out cabinet posts for the Danish People's Party, which remains deeply sceptic of the European Union.

In return for raising the retirement age earlier this year, the Danish People' Party secured concessions on stronger border controls - a move that was strongly criticized in Brussels but which Denmark said would help fight cross-border crime networks.

During the course of the campaign, however, the leader of the Conservatives, Lars Barfoed, has moved to distance himself from the right-wing populists, saying his party would not support tightening immigration further.

Barfoed and Margrethe Westager of the opposition Social Liberals recently raised eyebrows when they stated their intent to reach broad agreements that go beyond party lines in the coming parliament.

'There is a sentiment of 'enough is enough' concerning the Danish People's Party,' says Lars Bille, associate professor of political science at Copenhagen University.

The 2011 campaign has differed from those that took place in 2001, 2005 and 2007 since the economy has been such a big theme, Bille told the German Press Agency dpa.

But he notes that the fact that many voters are still undecided makes the election difficult to predict.

Danish voters generally believe that the centre-right has been better at keeping the economy in order, while the Social Democrats have higher credibility on welfare issues or tackling unemployment, he said.

Bille says it is hard to project how the Danish People's Party will fair as immigration and integration have not feature prominently in the campaign.

Although Denmark has contributed forces to Afghanistan - where 42 Danish soldiers have died since 2002 - that conflict has not been an election topic either.

Neither has Denmark's relationship with the EU, including its opt-outs from the economic and monetary union, despite the fact that the Scandinavian country is due to take over the six-month rotating presidency of the bloc on January 1.

Roughly 4 million voters are eligible to vote for the 179-strong parliament, including four seats decided by self-ruling Greenland and the Faroe Islands.