PREVIEW: Latvians to vote in early elections with open outcome

By Alexander Welscher Sep 14, 2011, 10:19 GMT

Riga - Economically troubled Latvia will on Saturday hold early parliamentary elections with an uncertain outcome.

Latvians were initially due to go to polls only in the autumn of 2014, but a clear majority of the electorate backed early elections in a referendum held in July at the behest of outgoing president Valdis Zatlers.

The referendum was one of Zatlers' last initiatives before he lost the presidential election at the beginning of June.

Using special presidential powers, Zatlers called the plebiscite after accusing members of parliament of not doing enough to fight corruption and the oligarchs who dominate the economy.

The outcome of the referendum does not mean, however, that the Latvians are mainly concerned with battling the oligarchs, 20 years after securing independence from the Soviet Union.

A recent opinion poll conducted by national radio showed a majority saw the economic and social situation in their country as a considerably more important matter.

Latvia has been harder hit by the economic and financial crisis than any other member country of the European Union, and was close to national bankruptcy.

This small Baltic country of just 2.3 million has one of the highest unemployment rates in the EU, and is facing a deep recession.

A complete collapse was prevented only by loans from the International Monetary Fund, the EU and Latvia's Nordic neighbours.

Following the financial crisis, Valdis Dombrovskis took over as prime minister in March 2009, prescribing radical austerity with mass layoffs in public services, sharp income cuts and closures of schools and hospitals.

Despite these harsh measures, Dombrovskis was re-elected with a clear majority in the most recent elections in October 2010.

Yet the outcome of the upcoming parliamentary elections is seen as completely open, with a total of 13 political groupings campaigning for support. Up to five parties are expected to secure seats in the Saeima, as the country's 100-seat unicameral parliament is called.

Polls put the Harmony Centre ahead. It is backed by the large Russian minority, which makes up a third of the country's population.

The second runner is Zatlers' newly formed Reform Party, which could get 17 per cent of the vote, according to the latest polls.

Dombrovskis' Unity enjoys stable poll predictions of 10 per cent. It is followed by its current coalition partners, the Union of Greens and Farmers, and by The National Alliance of conservative nationalists, which can each bank on around 8 per cent.

Horse-trading on forming a coalition will begin after the elections, in which 1.5 million people are eligible to vote.