Russian Mars probe about to crash sparks security concerns

By Wolfgang Jung Jan 12, 2012, 17:15 GMT

Moscow - The Mars probe launched by the Russia space agency in early November is to come crashing down to earth over the next few days, bringing with it some highly toxic fuel and a tiny amount of radioactive cobalt.

Roskosmos is banking on most of the Phobos-Grunt, as the failed mission is called, burning up as it re-enters the earth's atmosphere on Sunday - but large chunks of its 13.5 tonnes are certain to survive the uncontrolled and fiery descent.

Current predictions are for the surviving bits of the probe to splash down into the Indian Ocean, but as previous uncontrolled descents have shown, this cannot be guaranteed.

The Phobos-Grunt was stuck in 'parking orbit' after its November 9 launch from Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, circling the earth after its engines refused to fire to start the long journey to the Red Planet.

The 150-million-dollar project had been intended to boost the prestige of the Russian space programme, 15 years after the country's last interplanetary mission.

Russia also aimed to stake its claim following recent successes scored by China in its space programme and the announcement of plans by the United States to embark on a new Mars programme.

The Phobos-Grunt had been intended to remain operational until 2014, conducting research on Phobos, one of Mars' two moons, but after communications failed immediately after launch, the spacecraft began spiralling back to earth - without having made making any contribution to science.

'We wanted to get to Mars and didn't even reach the moon,' the Moscow newspaper Novaya Gazeta commented sourly.

Another Mars probe launched by Russia in 1996 also suffered a failure at launch. 'The disappointment was acute, and the Phobos-Grunt was intended to allay this,' Roskosmos deputy head Vitali Davydov said recently. Others hoped for a 'renaissance' in the Russian space programme.

Now critics are calling for the head of Roskosmos boss Vladimir Popovkin, who has been in office just eight months. Popovkin has suggested that 'sabotage' could be to blame for a string of recent failures in the Russian space programme.

But he has also acknowledged that the main reason for the failure of the Phobos-Grunt was a lack of technical expertise and pressure to achieve deadlines. 'We were aware of the risks, but we found ourselves hostage to our own decisions,' he said.

Over the course of 32 launches in 2011, there were five failures that cost the country millions of dollars and serious loss of face. US officials began to suggest the International Space Station, which is reliant on Russia's Soyuz rockets since the retirement of the Space Shuttle fleet, might have to be abandoned.

Despite the run of bad luck, Rene Pischel, head of the Moscow bureau of the European Space Agency, has cautioned against being overly critical of Russian technology.

He notes that the US has suffered its own failures, for example with the 1999 Mars probes Mars Climate Orbiter and Mars Polar Lander.

But the Phobos-Grunt fiasco has hit Moscow hard. The mission was part of an ambitious attempt to equip the country for space exploration in the 21st century.

This year, Roskosmos is to present the successor to its long-serving Soyuz spacecraft, with six instead of the current three berths - an event keenly awaited by the international space community.

Next year a female cosmonaut is to be the first Russian woman to travel to the ISS. 'The aim is also to make research attractive to young Russians and to counter the loss of technological expertise,' Davydov says.

There are to be a record 36 launches this year, with Russia aiming to put the many failures of 2011 well behind it.

Popovkin made clear on his appointment that another ambition was to earn more money from the space programme - an aim unlikely to be boosted by the prospect of tonnes of toxic junk falling to earth from the Phobos-Grunt.