Analysis: Public panic is immediate threat bird flu

By Veronika Oleksyn Oct 26, 2005, 5:58 GMT

Ottawa - Health officials around the world are urging the public to stay calm as scientists grapple with the possibility of a human flu pandemic.

But that's easier said than done.

For people tuning in and out of the news, reports that the human death toll from bird flu jumped to 62 on Tuesday is likely to cause some concern.

It's harder still to ignore advice by so-called experts to take action.

For example, the Hong Kong government on Tuesday was scrambling to prevent panic-buying of the antiviral drug Tamiflu after a World Health Organization (WHO) official advised people in a radio interview to build up private stockpiles of the drug that could slow the spread of bird flu among humans.

In an effort to deter a mad rush, the Hong Kong government warned that taking Tamiflu without a prescription would 'greatly increase the chance of antiviral resistance emerging from the virus'.

In Canada, meanwhile, a top health official said Tuesday that panic buying of antiviral drugs risks creating a shortage.

'Anytime there's fear of shortage, it risks creating shortage,' said David Butler-Jones, Canada's chief public health officer.

Then, there are those unappetizing and disturbing images of mass bird culls that have caused some Europeans to think twice about eating chicken - much to the chagrin of poultry farmers fearing for their livelihoods.

The solution, say health officials, is to get as much accurate information as possible about bird flu into the public realm.

Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin on Tuesday acknowledged that public fear and bad information could 'too easily snowball into panic'.

'It would complicate our collective response to a pandemic immeasurably and magnify its impact,' Martin told a gathering of more than 30 international health ministers, in Ottawa to discuss bird flu.

He added that the 'best antidote' was a clear, honest and consistent assessment of risks, the ability to speak early and continuously with one voice in frank and constructive terms.

'Our job is to find the balance between informing and inflaming,' United States Health Secretary Mike Leavitt said Tuesday.

He said the purpose of the meeting in Ottawa was 'to inspire people to prepare and not to panic'.

But even he agreed that a human global flu pandemic could hit at anytime - anywhere.

And that's not an easy thing to swallow.

While disease experts and public officials alike are quick to point out that the current deadly bird flu virus, known as H5N1, continues to be an animal disease, there's no denying their fear that the virus could mutate and become highly contagious among humans.

On Monday, Jong-Wook Lee, director-general of the World Health Organization, said that the next global pandemic was 'likely to come from an avian flu virus' - echoing recent warnings from his own and other organizations.

The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic that killed about 40 million people worldwide was believed to stem from birds.

'Our concern,' Lee said, 'is that avian flu could become the new source of a human pandemic.'