Bird flu a global threat; domestic test for Beijing

By Andreas Landwehr Dec 1, 2005, 17:06 GMT

Beijing - Global efforts to combat bird flu will be decided in China, where the dangerous H5N1 virus appeared for the first time nine years ago in the southern regions.

Today many Asian countries have been hit by the virus, and the first cases have been recorded in Europe.

China again is recording new outbreaks on an almost daily basis now. The situation is 'serious', says Beijing.

Since some of the main routes of migratory birds cut across the country, China could become the launch pad from which the disease spreads to the entire world, a new study conducted by Andy Rothman for the investment house CLSA warns.

Both U.S. President George W. Bush and U.N. General Secretary Kofi Annan, who is due to visit China on Sunday, are deeply concerned about the measures taken by Beijing to contain the spread.

For new president and party chief Hu Jintao and prime minister Wen Jiabao, the disease also represents the first major public test at home which will show whether Beijing is keeping its promise to be a government for the 'little people', says Rothman.

The total impact of bird flu on China's economy is comparatively small, as poultry farming only makes up three percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) and 0.25 per cent of all exports, he says.

However, Rothman points out that bird flu is a problem of poor farming families. China's 14 billion chickens, ducks and geese - one quarter of all poultry worldwide - are not bred by large farms but by 50 million small households.

And the farmers are in a dilemma. If they report an outbreak of the disease the authorities will not only slaughter their flock, but also those of their neighbours within a three-kilometre radius.

The only way to encourage people to disclose outbreaks are generous and efficient compensation procedures, which also avoid that payments disappear in the pockets of corrupt officials.

For the past two month the central government has stepped up its pressure on officials who usually do everything to avoid having to report bad news to the upper echelons.

Penalties and even legal proceedings have been threatened if outbreaks are not reported in time. The increasing number of reports in recent weeks could be seen as a sign that the campaign is actually working.

Health Minister Gao Qiang has dismissed as 'malicious' rumours that hundreds of people had already died from the disease and that thousands had been quarantined.

Such a scenario is, indeed, hard to imagine, given the speed at which news travel in China today - via mobile, SMS, medical staff and, despite all censorship efforts, also internet chatrooms.

Many experts who travel the country and investigate bird flu cases do not believe that there is a large-scale campaign to cover up the disease, says Rothman.

The number of deaths and infections is nonetheless likely to be higher than officially reported, because the disease is often diagnosed incorrectly and the required tools for blood tests are missing.

After all, due to their harsh living conditions, flu and pneumonia are common illnesses in the poor farming communities. <!--page-->

'I am concerned that our rural medical personnel is unable to diagnose and confirm an outbreak in time, because of lack of competence and comparatively outdated equipment,' the health minister admitted recently.

Matters are made even worse by bureaucratic obstacles such as bad cooperation and squabbles over competency between the health and the agriculture ministries.

The authorities have learnt from some past mistakes in the 2003 crisis concerning the SARS lung disease, but China's nationwide health monitoring remains still insufficient.

The health system would not be prepared for a human epidemic of the mutated H5N1 virus, observers agree.

The communist health system in the rural areas, where 60 per cent of China's 1.3-billion population live, has broken down as a result of economic reforms.

More than 90 per cent of the rural population have to pay out of their own pocket for any medical treatment.