Democrats' poll win bad news for India-US nuclear deal?

By Manish Chand Nov 8, 2006, 13:36 GMT

New Delhi, Nov 8 (IANS) The Democrats' victory in the US congressional elections has sparked anxieties here about the future of the India-US civil nuclear deal, with diplomats and experts divided over the course of the agreement.

'Democrats might include new conditions which may make it difficult for a lameduck president to push through the agreement,' Abid Hussain, a former envoy of India to the US, told IANS.

Hussain stressed that the nuclear deal may get caught in the crossfire of domestic politics and the game of one-upmanship in the run-up to the 2008 presidential elections.

'Moreover, Democrats may not like to give Republicans the credit for pulling off the nuclear deal with India. This is the only feather in the cap of the Bush administration in the foreign policy as they have failed elsewhere in Iraq and Iran,' Hussain said.

'Furthermore, the Democrats and reluctant Republicans may join together to make the progress of the agreement a little rough and difficult,' he added.

Even as results are trickling in, trends show that Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 1994, while control of the Senate still hangs in the balance.

In South Block, the news of the Democrats' poll victory was met with an air of quiet resignation with key diplomats already putting out the spin that even if the deal didn't sail through in the lame duck session, it will be done in the new Congress when it convenes in January.

'The deal may not go through in the lame duck session has broad bipartisan support. It's just a matter of time before it is translated into legislation,' a senior diplomat, who did not wish to be named, told IANS.

'Let's be realistic. The ban on nuclear exports to India has been there for nearly three decades. It will take some more time for the turnaround,' he added.

At least 10 appropriation bills and a treaty on Vietnam trade top the agenda of the lameduck session of the Congress.

The American embassy here is also bracing itself to address Indian anxieties, with the US envoy to India, David C. Mulford, set to make a statement on the issue Thursday.

William Cohen, former US defence secretary who is currently in India, stressed that the deal enjoyed strong bipartisan support the deal enjoys in the US.

'There is a lot at stake in it for both India and the US. If the deal does not go through in the lameduck session, it will not go down well in the short-term but it will not affect long-term India-US relations,' Cohen said.

'Now, there will be a lot more extra conditions. And if that happens, going by what Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told parliament recently, it may not be acceptable to India,' Bharat Karnad, an expert on nuclear issues, told IANS.

'This will also give a handle to non-proliferation ayatollahs in the US, who despite what India says do not make any distinction between North Korea (which defiantly conducted nuclear test recently) and India,' Karnad, an expert on nuclear issues, stressed.

K. Subrahmanyam, expert who heads the prime minister's task force on global strategic developments, is, however, optimistic about the future of the nuclear agreement.

'The elections will have no impact on the nuclear deal. Let's not forget that Democrats overwhelming voted in favour of the draft bill on the nuclear deal in the House of Representatives recently. Eighty per cent of these Democrats are back,' he said.

'How can the same Democrats vote against the deal? Unlike India, American political parties do not say one thing when they are not in power and something else when they are in power,' he said.

© 2006 Indo-Asian News Service