ULFA silence could be the lull before the storm

By Syed Zarir Hussain Mar 6, 2007, 14:59 GMT

Guwahati, March 6 (IANS) The Indian government's indifferent handling of the vexed insurgency in Assam could once again prompt the outlawed United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) to resume its cycle of violence.

For the past one month, Assam has witnessed an ominous calm with no major incidents of violence reported after the ULFA agreed not to disturb the 33rd National Games in Guwahati.

But with the Games' successful completion, the rebels are getting restive as the state and central governments show no signs of re-launching the deadlocked peace process.

On the contrary, there are conflicting statements both in parliament and in the Assam assembly saying ULFA is yet to respond positively for holding talks.

Even the army brass believes that the present lull is a result of the military offensive currently on in Assam - a thinking that could go awfully wrong if one analyses the ground situation.

'It was ULFA that created an environment for the National Games by lifting the boycott call. People thought the government would reciprocate positively to the ULFA's gesture once the Games were over, but it didn't happen,' Indira Goswami, a noted Assamese writer and sought by ULFA to mediate for peace talks, told IANS.

'If the army and the government mistake ULFA's silence as a weakness, Assam would be in for a bad phase again, something no Assamese wants.'

The ULFA already sounded a warning Monday by triggering a powerful blast on a paramilitary convoy wounding six personnel in eastern Assam's Dhemaji district.

'The ULFA is definitely not a spent force. It has enough reserves to hit back and so a military solution is not the answer. What is required is a dialogue to resolve the problem,' said Hare Krishna Deka, former Assam police chief and a security analyst.

The ULFA, fighting for an independent Assamese homeland since 1979, in two statements last week offered to hold talks with New Delhi if the government gives a written commitment.

'We urge the Indian government to pave the way for direct talks by giving in writing that it would hold talks with us on the issue of restoration of Assam's sovereignty, provide us information about our comrades in the custody of Indian and Bhutanese forces, and release our jailed central committee leaders,' ULFA chairperson Arabinda Rajkhowa said.

During the first round of talks in October 2005 with the ULFA-chosen People's Consultative Group (PCG), Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said in no uncertain terms that the government was ready to discuss 'all issues' - a statement the rebel leadership welcomed. But the preliminary talks were deadlocked after three rounds.

The ULFA went on a killing spree and bombings after that with the government resuming a massive military offensive - although the operations have failed to yield the desired results. The rebels have sneaked back to bases in Myanmar or are able to mingle with the Assamese masses.

'The only hope now is the personal intervention of the prime minister to break the impasse and start fresh talks,' Goswami said.

© 2007 Indo-Asian News Service