In a surprising announcement earlier this month, Zhang Deguang, General-Secretary of the SCO, noted that the period of political and economic instability in Central Asia had ended and that the future of Central Asia’s oil and gas reserves would now become the focus of the SCO. “Energy is very important. It is the number one priority for us. All the member countries are eager to move forward as soon as possible with closer cooperation,” Zhang said. In this regard, a new “Energy Working Group” will be formed within the SCO sometime in 2006 to promote cooperative investment projects, research and resource exploration.
But is energy cooperation really the number one priority of the organization moving forward? Although SCO officials have denied that the organization will grow beyond the current permanent and observer states, expansion of the organization’s membership has been discussed recently. With the support of permanent member Kazakhstan, Belarus, a known human rights violator under the Stalinist regime of President Alexander Lukashenko, submitted an application in December for entry into the organization. Consideration of Belarus for SCO membership poses serious questions concerning the evolving nature of the organization.
Comments made last week by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad asking Europe to “open its doors” to take back Israel’s Jewish population so that the country could be removed from the Middle East are troubling. Unfortunately, Ahmadinejad’s comments coincide with other disturbing developments involving SCO permanent members Russia, China and Kazakhstan. All three countries have been criticized by UN human rights inspectors for permitting an increase in hate crimes; religious attacks and torture within their borders.
The SCO has become more defensive recently concerning the internal affairs of its members, as well. This month, General-Secretary Zhang Deguang warned other countries to stay out of the internal affairs of SCO observer state Mongolia, as demonstrations earlier in the month in Ulan-Bator threatened to spread to other parts of the country.
In response to growing concerns regarding a rapidly changing geostrategic environment, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced last week that the U.S. will shift hundreds of Foreign Service officers from Washington and Europe to emerging countries in Asia and Africa over the next few years. “This [Africa and Asia] is where the action is and this is where we must be,” Secretary Rice noted.
In the face of U.S. foreign policy changes one important question remains -- Could the SCO evolve into a military confederacy designed to protect the energy and security interests of its members? How will the organization react if coordinated military action is taken by the U.S. and its allies against energy-rich SCO member Iran? “The SCO will never become a military bloc or an exclusionary one. We’re not an Eastern NATO,” Zhang Deguan noted, referring to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization – the West’s Cold War military pact. But will the assurances of SCO officials hold up during a regional conflict that could imperil the region’s energy resources?
One thing is clear; the SCO has the potential to become much more than just a regional alliance. A strategically located Turkey; energy and mineral rich Indonesia; and militaristic North Korea could become part of an expanded SCO. In addition, energy-rich African nations such as Nigeria and the Sudan, as well as Latin American energy giant Venezuela would certainly fit the SCO’s emerging profile. <!--page-->
According to SCO officials, the inclusion of members from outside Central Asia would require a change in the organization’s existing charter. However, there is little doubt that such a change could occur rather quickly, especially if SCO members felt threatened by the actions or growing presence of a country such as the U.S.
Meeting in Moscow this week, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Mehdi Safari and Head of the Russian Duma for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Andre Kokoshin stated that the continued presence of foreign forces in Central Asia is unwelcome. In a visit to the Azerbaijani capital of Baku this week, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov urged Caspian Sea nations to unite against what he called “threats to regional security.” Both statements are clear references to the U.S and its Western allies.
The geostrategic significance of the SCO should not be underestimated by the West. “The SCO will become one of the world’s most influential organizations by 2050,” Zhang Deguang noted in January. For this reason, it is important for the U.S. and its Western allies to monitor the development of regional alliances such as the SCO which could make the world a much more hostile place.
Frederick W. Stakelbeck Jr. is a foreign affairs writer based in Philadelphia. He can be reached at frederick dot stakelbeck at verizon dot net.
