Middle East Features
Sanctions against Iran could cause international crisis
By Farshid Motahari Mar 23, 2007, 20:14 GMT
Tehran - Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has threatened that Iran will not play by international rules if the UN fails to refuse Iran's right to develop civil nuclear technology.
Because Iran has not suspended its nuclear programme, thus ignoring UN demands, the UN Security Council is likely to pass a resolution containing sanctions against Iran on Saturday.
Observers in Iran agree that Iran's reaction to the sanctions will show their full extent and effect more clearly than the sanctions themselves.
In a first step, Iran might end cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in a second step, it might leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Should the crisis escalate further, a military blockade of the Hormus Straight - the main passage for worldwide oil exports in the Gulf - was not unthinkable. This, in turn, might result in an oil crisis, at least short term.
Tehran has repeatedly threatened to take all of these steps. 'If you are being cornered it's legitimate to defend yourself by all means,' President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said.
Western diplomats fear that an escalation of the crisis might strengthen followers of the president and weaken the influence of moderate forces.
'If we don't act wisely, the crisis will hit both ourselves and the West and eventually the whole region,' said former president Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, who is one of Ahmadinejad's fiercest critics.
Although the Iranian leadership has been attempting to belittle the consequences of the sanctions as 'psychological warfare,' economic experts see things differently.
'Sanctions hurt economically and politically, nobody can deny that. The economy in particular is a chain, in which each malfunctioning link can upset everything,' an economist in Iran said. Infrastructure projects and the fragile civil aviation business in particular would suffer.
But Iran's Achilles heel is oil.
More than 80 per cent of the national income is generated by oil exports. But local oil consumption necessitates an increase in oil production, which currently stands at 4.2 million barrels a day. One third of that is used locally, the remainder is exported.
International cooperation to increase production is essential for Iran, in particular because of its growing home consumption. Sanctions could significantly hamper this cooperation.
The latest example is a 2-billion dollar project for the development of the Azadegan oil fields in southern Iran. Although a contract had been signed, the Japanese side backed down because of the nuclear dispute.
'How important these projects are for the country, and how severe the consequences would be if they were stalled, ordinary people can't understand,' an oil expert in Tehran said.
Sanctions might also limit future cooperations between Iranian and foreign banks. Several banks have ended their cooperation, including German Commerzbank, which has had a representation in Tehran for years and used to be considered one of Iran's main banking partners.
'So far, we can cope. But if more banks join the boycott even simple bank transfers will become difficult,' Iranian sources said.
The president points to US sanctions over the last ten years, which - according to Ahmadinejad - had only encouraged the country to increase its efforts and to find new business partners to fill the gap left by the US.
'But even Ahmadinejad knows that his new friends, such as Venezuela, Bolivia or Nicaragua are no alternatives to Western partners,' a diplomat in Tehran said.
According to observers, this is just why Ahmadinejad - despite denouncing the World Security Council as an instrument of world powers and its resolutions as 'morsels of paper' - is now keen to go to New York to stop the sanctions at the last minute.
© 2007 dpa - Deutsche Presse-AgenturCOMMENT
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Older Talkback
page: 1
'When pharoah decided to follow and try to kill Moses, he drowned in the sea, so will the oppressors for the rest of the time. Their ropes are only so much long, then they get to pay the price.'
Door knob cabbage, while the night time blooms. Were it not for the camp tomorrow Willson before! Sanskrit through babble fish your posts sound like. Shut hummus hole Nick name for Richard head, your.
See you do not understan, we have organised into EU and UNO. Through these instituitions we establish blockade first.It weakens the defence of that particular nation, then we invade it. Then we divide the people of that country on whatever lines we can and keep ruling that nation.
LEARN YOUR LESSONS FROM THE EXAMPLES OF AMERICAS..WHAT WE HAVE DONE TO THE ORIGINAL AMERICANS, OR ORIGINAL AUSTRALIANS, WHAT WE HAVE DONE WITH THEM!
Why is it like this? Does it have to be this way? Why spread a message of hate. No one is winning, every one is loseing. We are a human race. And we are destroying our selves. We need to get our act together! Or there will be no future for anyone. Can't you see that this course of action we are all taking isn't working. No one is getting anywhere except dead. This is not what Alah wants, this is not what Jehova wants, and this is not what God wants, and it diffenently isn't what Jesus wants. This sensless violence must stop. Because if Iran sends a nuke up, every world power sends a nuke up. Thermal Global Nuclear War, is what will happen! NO ONE wins we will all die... Then what? Because if we are all dead, who will be comming back, for reincarnation? No one because we killed the Mother Earth. You bunch of damn morrons. STOP THE Violence!
'Why is it like this? Does it have to be this way? Why spread a message of hate. No one is winning, every one is loseing. We are a human race. And we are destroying our selves. We need to get our act together!'
You might be over reacting a bit, sanctions on Iran is not gonna effect the rest of the world but does effect Iran. No one wants a war (except maybe Ahminajihad) and that is what the sanctions are for. Give them time, ignore the monkies posturing and see what happens.
We do not hate anyone, nor do want to oppress others, nor do we want other nations oppress us.
The human values are at equality, not as some slaves and some masters. Look at the history of past 500 years....
The inqusition of Cardoba...9,000,000 muslims killed by the followers of Jesus.
Enslaving of Africa, Asia and colonising, all done by followers of Jesus, in the name of peace and brotherhood.
European inquistion of Americas...by who?
In India in 1857 1,000,000 Muslims killed in one city Kaanpour, total killing by Jesus followers 10,000,000 by rough estimates.
The pan European wars AKA world wars, were for colonists to bleed and benefit from non-european areas.
The invasion by Iraq of Iran at the behest of followers of Jesus, and then support of the then ruler and invader of Iran.
Our invasion of Granada.
Bosnia saw in recent days, so did rest of eastern Europe.
How many more I need to count
JUST SEE THE PAST 550 YEARS OF HISTORY WRITTEN BY FOLLOWERS OF JESUS...
'The inqusition of Cardoba...9,000,000 muslims killed by the followers of Jesus.'
That is just complete nonsense! More people are killed by Islamists each year than in all 350 years of the Spanish Inquisition combined.
' 1,000,000 Muslims killed in one city Kaanpour, total killing by Jesus followers 10,000,000 by rough estimates.'
Good lord... You might even have been programmed to believe such insanity. It is so over the top so crazy that anyone with half a brain could do a few minutes of research and completely disprove this nonsense, but you don't have half a brain, do you? You have had a Madrassah lobotomy. Just believe whatever craziness they tell you and you will get to paradise, right?
Stupid animal.
'JUST SEE THE PAST 550 YEARS OF HISTORY WRITTEN BY FOLLOWERS OF JESUS...'
Go draw a cartoon of Jesus and we will see how many people get murdered over it. That is just another indication of your primitive savagery.
Wow...9,000,000...10,000,000
Ok we can all do that, 100,000,000,000 Christians killed by Muslims just last year, its a fact, some guy with a rag around his head told me..I swear..honest..I know a historian in Israel like Ivor. And just last month Ahminajihad ate a bucket of live puppies and then set fire to an orpanage..its the truth...really...
'And just last month Ahminajihad ate a bucket of live puppies and then set fire to an orpanage..its the truth...really...'
They were cuddly puppies.
page: 1
SP4-3Mar 24th, 2007 - 02:29:44
When pharoah decided to follow and try to kill Moses, he drowned in the sea, so will the oppressors for the rest of the time. Their ropes are only so much long, then they get to pay the price.
I AM SURE THE ARROGANTS, WHO DEPEND ON THEIR WEAPONARY, WILL PAY TOO.
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