Lebanon's presidency has always been problematic

By Weedah Hamzah Sep 1, 2007, 17:10 GMT

Beirut, - 'Let us wait until November' is what you hear a lot in Lebanon these days, as people wait for their leaders to reach a consensus to end a 10-month political deadlock and elect a new president for their country.

Parliament has from September 25 to November 24 to elect a president to replace the pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud, whose term in office was controversially extended by three years under a Syrian- inspired constitutional amendment in 2004.

Political factions are currently locked in deep differences over the issue, but Lebanese citizens and and its business community are prepared to wait until the political impasse is settled.

Lebanese have always been know for eternal optimism and faith in their country in the worst of times. But it seems these days they have adopted a pessimistic view that the current political differences might engulf the country in a civil war similar to the 1975-1990 war.

'All businessmen have postponed big business deals until after the presidential elections,' said businessman Mazen Nasser.

'Always before presidential elections are due, problems arise and business suffers as well as the people,' he added.

Throughout the history of this small country, problems that arise in the run up to presidential elections have been due to a political system based on a sensitive balance between 18 religious denominations.

The government - and its Christian, Druze and Sunni supporters - want the next president to be independent of Syrian influence.

The opposition wants a supporter of Hezbollah's 'armed resistance' and wants to prevent the government from installing a president aligned with the United States and Europe.

Syria, was Lebanon's powerbroker until after the assassination of former premier Rafik Hariri in 2005, when Damascus was widely blamed for the premier's killing by the anti-Syrian parliamentary majority.

Lebanon has been hit by its worst political crisis since the civil war after six pro-Syrian ministers resigned from Prime Minister Fouad Seniora's cabinet in November 2006, effectively paralysing the government and political decision-making.

'The modern history of Lebanon demonstrates that the question of electing a president has often been problematic. Of the nine elected presidents who took power since Lebanon attained independence from France in 1946, three ended their terms in crisis,' said Selim Nazzal, a political analyst.

'The first crisis began at the end of the term of Bishara Al- Khoury, the first president of the independence era,' he explained.

The second took place at the end of Camille Chamoun's term in office, leading to a civil war in 1958, he added.

The third crisis took place at the end of Amin Gemayel's term, when he left the presidential palace in 1988, and handed his term to then army commander general Michel Aoun, which resulted in the establishment of two governments, each claiming sole legitimacy.

In the forthcoming presidential election, more than a few expect the possibility of a repeat of the two governments' bitter experiences, should the political parties fail to find a political compromise.

Lahoud on Thursday raised the stakes by saying that he would appoint the country's army chief to head an interim government in the event the squabbling parties could not agree on a candidate to replace him.

For the time being, it is difficult to anticipate that a compromise between the opposition, led by Hezbollah and the anti- Syrian majority is even on the cards.

But on Friday a glimmer of hope appeared when prominent opposition figure and parliament speaker Nabih Berri said his camp was willing to drop a demand for a unity government if the country's feuding political parties agree on a candidate for the presidency.

'We are holding consultations, and this will take two to three days. We have to examine and evaluate the issue in all its aspects,' said anti-Syrian Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh said of Berri's offer.

'We are of course open to all negotiations,' Hamadeh said.

Until some sort of compromise is reached, the Lebanese will continue to hope for a miracle to make their country's November elections peaceful for a change.