Mar 19, 2008, 6:34 GMT
Beirut - When it invaded Iraq five years ago, the United States had planned to remake the Middle East, bringing stability and democracy. The results may well have been the opposite.
Among the problems introduced were the burden of hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refugees borne by countries like Jordan and Syria.
Iraq itself has become a magnet for disgruntled al-Qaeda-inspired Arabs from around the region who come and fight the Americans.
Further, the invasion has deepened tensions between Washington and Tehran, increased Sunni-Shiite Muslim frictions throughout the region, and led to the rise in extremists in neighbouring countries.
According to analysts such as Lebanon's Ahmed Mousalli, innocent people across the Middle East are now paying the price of what some describe as the 'Iraq effect.'
First of all, says Mousalli, the so-called war on terrorism will drive the United States to confront 'an expanding network of enemies in the region.'
At the top of the list of enemies is Iran. Tehran was quite happy to see the Baath regime in Baghdad go. Saddam Hussein invaded Iran in 1980, starting an eight-year war that devastated areas in Iran that have not fully recovered after almost 20 years.
On the negative side for Iran, its other more powerful foe, the US, now has a military presence both to its east in Afghanistan and west in Iraq. Plus a truculent US administration has been accusing Iran of arming insurgents and causing discord between Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq.
Among innocents paying the price for the fallout of US Iraq policy is Jordan. Suicide bombings at that killed 60 at three five-star hotels in Amman in 2005 were carried out by Iraqis with al-Qaeda allegiances.
And in Lebanon, there was the emergence of the al-Qaeda-inspired group Fatah al-Islam in that battled the Lebanese army for three months in 2007.
Fatah al-Islam's leader Shaker al-Abssi, now on the run, last year said the only way the people of the Middle East could achieve their rights was 'by force' because, he said: 'This is the way America deals with us.'
Many of the 200 members of Abssi's group fought in Iraq.
According to intelligence officials, Abssi's organization is part of the re-emergence of al-Qaeda, which was shattered after the US bombardment of Afghanistan in 2001.
Former Lebanese army general and terrorism expert Hisham Jaber said 'the Iraq conflict has greatly increased the spread of al-Qaeda ideological virus in the whole Middle East and not just in Lebanon.'
'We can see clearly that young Muslim teenagers are being groomed to be suicide bombers, to fight what they see the American threat on Muslim regions. The threat is serious and is growing,' Jaber said.
But the threat goes beyond that. Traditionally US-friendly countries in the region view the emergence of a Shiite-controlled government in Iraq as another significant threat arising from the invasion of Iraq.
Sunni Arab states have been the traditional power brokers of the Arab world and they fear the rise of what they describe as a 'radical Shiite Crescent' stretching from Iran through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon.
According to one Arab diplomat based in Beirut, Lebanon - with its weak government - could easily become the second front for the Sunni- Shiite violence plaguing the region - 'a fertile recruiting ground ... for jihadists.'
In Turkey, fears are that Kurds in northern Iraq could declare independence and that the separatist Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) would cement themselves in northern Iraq from where they could launch raids across the border.
Turkey is still mired in a low-level conflict with the PKK inside Iraqi territory, and the fear is that the conflict could escalate.
Meanwhile, for the Palestinians - particularly the militant groups - the fall of Saddam removed a powerful supporter, which was doubly good for Israel which saw the end of some financial support for Palestinian militants as well as the downfall of one of Israel's most implacable foes.
Ironically, the main - and certainly the most lasting - effect of the war for Israel and the Palestinians, was that it encouraged US President George W Bush to include the Palestinians in his attempt to bring democracy to the region.
Yet without credible support on the ground that too may be produce the opposite of what was intended.
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