Middle East Features
Bush successor to inherit Middle East quagmire (Feature)
By Ofira Koopmans Oct 29, 2008, 0:08 GMT
Tel Aviv/Ramallah - There are not many parts of the world where George W Bush - one of the most unpopular US presidents in history - is as well liked as he was in Israel.
It remains to be seen whether his successor, either Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain, will be able to fill his shoes.
Outgoing Israeli premier Ehud Olmert called Bush 'our closest ally and partner' and 'a force of inspiration' during a visit in May. President Shimon Peres welcomed him as a 'dear' and 'Biblical' friend of Israel.
Bush boycotted late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat at the height of the second Palestinian uprising against Israel. In a 2004 letter to former Israeli premier Ariel Sharon, he effectively promised Israel it would be able to keep its main settlement blocks in the West Bank as part of a negotiated peace deal with the Palestinians, an unprecedented written pledge granted in exchange for Sharon's unilateral pullout from the Gaza Strip.
On the flip side, the administration often emphasized how Bush was the first US president to publicly call for the establishment of a Palestinian state.
But his policy of rewarding moderates like Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, while isolating the radical Islamic Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, will have failed abysmally if Israel and Abbas' West Bank-based administration fail to achieve their stated goal of signing a peace deal before Bush leaves office. The deadline looms.
His successor will likely be left to deal with a Hamas that continues to control the Gaza Strip. Plus, Abbas' term as president ends January 9.
In Israel, the high-profile negotiations with Abbas have been pushed to the background by Olmert's resignation amid corruption allegations and possible early elections by March if Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, the new leader of the centrist Kadima party, fails to form a new government. In such a case, the next US president could find himself dealing with the hawkish Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister, currently the favourite to win new elections.
Area residents have no illusion that their conflict will be an immediate top priority for the president-elect, who will be preoccupied with other urgent issues, not least of which will be the economic crisis.
Palestinians keep track of the polls, but not passionately. The vast majority of them express apathy, saying neither Obama nor McCain would make any difference to their cause. Many feel any US president would be biased toward Israel.
When asked to make a choice though, they express a clear preference for Obama. McCain, they say, would only mean a continuation of Bush's 'extreme, hawkish, anti-Arab' policies.
The latest opinion poll, conducted by the East Jerusalem Media and Communications Centre early this month in the West Bank and Gaza, gave the Democrat 37 per cent of the vote, while McCain only got 15 per cent. The rest - representing nearly half of Palestinians - did not know who they preferred or had no answer. The poll included 1,200 Palestinians.
Palestinians appreciate the fact that Obama took time to meet Abbas in the West Bank city of Ramallah during his 30-hour visit to Israel in July. This contrasted with McCain, who visited Israel in March but only telephoned the Palestinian leader.
In Israel, the attitudes are less clear cut. What is clear is that MCain is no longer the strong favourite.
But voters remain wary of Obama, due to a perceived lack of foreign policy experience and concerns about his calls to enter into a dialogue with Iran, a nation some Israelis see as a major threat.
A poll conducted by Kevoon, a Tel Aviv-based institute, gave McCain a 7-per-cent lead over Obama among Israelis. At the same time, an Israel Radio poll gave Obama a 9-per-cent lead over McCain.
Obama gets his support from left-wing, liberal Israelis. But the Israel Radio poll showed conservative voters are divided and have no clear preference for McCain, despite him being the natural successor of the Israel-friendly Bush.
'What can McCain do that Clinton or Bush haven't tried?,' said Benny Razon, a 35-year-old electrician in Tel Aviv and a self- described fervent Likud supporter, summing up his feelings. 'Obama has new blood, young blood. He'll try new things.'
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Older Talkback
page: 1
..we only support the Israeli people, not necessarily their government. There is much to support this premise i.e. the U.S. protesting settlement development, support of Abbas ( a big mistake), etc. In fact, the policy of virtually EVERY president has been essentially the same: Israel is an Ally to the United States.
Curiously, it has been the Conservatives who have been the most dissenting group in US Government policy over israel i.e. Opposing some of the more aggressive policies and actions. Barry Goldwater was the first I ever heard, calling the Begin(?) a terrorist, and Reagan, in his diaries, painting them as 'double Dealing' and chastizing them for their actions. Nixon had to hold his nose as well, along with Bush one. Bush two is really no different, seeing a two state solution as the only viable one. There is no way they can integrate Israel.
Even more curiously, it has been the democrats who have rolled over on Israel, pissing off Arafat (Clintn) by trying to impose terms on him, a fatal error.
America Presidents spend about 25% of their time on this issue and I, for one, would like them spending it on other things. Given the conditions present i.e. no one leaving them to figure it out on their own I kind of doubt this will happen, no matter who gets in. Nonetheless, it is pretty clear they will not release the tape of Obama celebrating with these terrorists and the fact that they seem to like him far more...I wonder why???
page: 1
tonny from belgiumOct 29th, 2008 - 07:34:56
It is urgent that americans start to realize that Israeli's are not a monolithic block of people but have different opinions about how to deal with the palestinians,unlike the american media portray them.
To support ANY type of israeli government,whatever the policy is completely absurd of course.Yet it happens.THe Bush administration has been backing up the most extreme israeli politicians that are heavily subsidized from the USa to populate palestinian occupied lands with fanatical jewish settlers who think arabs are an inferior race,that they are the only chosen people,based on a bronze age text book written by high priests and kings thousands of years ago.And those people,as well as their equally fanatical supporters in the USA,the so called evangelicals,have the nerve to accuse the palestinians of religious terrorism.An absurd affirmation looking at the source....
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