By Farshid Motahari Jun 8, 2009, 15:50 GMT
Tehran - In Friday's president election, incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will face three challengers: moderates Mir- Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi, and conservative Mohsen Rezaei.
But what the majority of Iranians mainly care about is not the challengers as much as simply whether Ahmadinejad stays or goes.
'The election is de facto a referendum on Ahmadinejad and the destiny of the three other candidates depends on the Yes or No votes against the president,' said one analyst in Tehran.
The Iranian opposition has long been aware of the referendum nature of the election, and has been hoping for a high turn-out which will increase the protest votes against Ahmadinejad, rather than relying on the votes for the other candidates.
'It isn't the people we see in the streets who will seal the outcome of the election, but those who are passively sitting at home,' the analyst added.
More than 45 per cent of eligible voters failed to vote in the 2005 presidential election. Reformist and moderate opposition groups consider this as one of the reasons for Ahmadinejad's landslide victory.
More than 60 per cent of the 46.2 million eligible voters are under the age of 30, making the role of the young voters vital for the election outcome.
Young voters, however, form three groups - one loyal to revolution and Islamic system and which would vote for Ahmadinejad; one seeking change and which would vote against him; and a third group which is against the whole system and sees no difference in any of the candidates.
'The third group would make the difference,' said a student activist at the technical university in Isfahan, central Iran. 'But if they go to the polls, then they would definitely not vote for Ahmadinejad,' he added.
Within the majority of the active electorate, the economy is the main criterion - not what the next president would do in the nuclear dispute, or whether to resume talks with the United States.
The economy might also be the Achilles heel of Ahmadinejad, especially after he failed to put into effect his promised economic reforms, thereby disappointing a large number of those who voted for him four years ago, but who now blame him for the country's recession and high inflation.
'People's social security is more important than any other security,' said Moussavi who according to opinion polls, is the main challenger of the president and has far better chances than the other two candidates.
The 67-year old Moussavi, who was prime minister in the 1980s, has focused his campaign on economy and tried to persuade the low-income strata and labour unions that unlike Ahmadinejad, he would keep his word on improving their life standards.
His choice of the colour green as symbol for change has turned his campaign into a green wave with his young supporters wearing green wristbands, scarves and T-shirts and putting slogans such as Let's get Green or Go Green on Internet to show their support for Moussavi.
'I hope that all Iran will turn green after the election,' Moussavi said.
'My colours are the three colours (green-white-red) of our national flag,' countered Ahmadinejad.
Ahmadinejad is the candidate of the establishment and with the support of the country's clergy, state media and the revolutionary guards, he is still considered favourite to win the election.
Moussavi supporters have, however, started a widespread SMS campaign calling on all Iranians 'to make the election day a Green and not a Black Friday.'
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