Lebanese majority faces real challenges after victory (News Feature)

By Weedah Hamzah Jun 8, 2009, 16:57 GMT

Beirut - The Hezbollah-led opposition's loss to the pro- Western majority in Lebanon's parliamentary election has left the two opposing camps with the difficult test of forming a government of national unity to maintain stability in a country chronically suffering political and economic crisis.

According to interior ministry final official results, the majority won 71 seats in the 128-member parliament, while the Hezbollah-led opposition secured 57 seats.

The ruling majority will be tasked to propose the next prime minister, a Sunni Muslim by tradition. The head of the government is named after mandatory parliamentary consultations are carried out by President Michel Suleiman.

Many observers fear a scene will repeat itself on the political arena in which the opposition will insist on a national unity government with veto power. Such an issue recently contributed to paralyzing the country politically for several months.

Hezbollah had insisted on holding a third of the government seats to retain veto power, fearing the Western-backed majority would bow to demands for disarming the Shiite organization's military wing.

Hezbollah, which led the resistance that saw Israel withdraw from southern Lebanon in 2000 and continues to fight Israel during offensives, has made clear it has accepted the defeat, but will not accept demands to disarm.

Hezbollah MP Hussein Haj Hassan said Monday that the group's weapons 'are not subject to discussion as long as Israel is a threat on Lebanon.'

'Hezbollah will keep insisting on maintaining their arms, and this again will cause a political crisis,' said political analyst Shafik Masri.

The issue of the Hezbollah arsenal has been the core of the deep division between the ruling majority and Hezbollah-led opposition.

The majority has always insisted that only the Lebanese army should protect the Lebanese and the country, while Hezbollah believe that they should keep their arms to confront Israel.

But many observers believe the majority's victory was reassuring to the West that Lebanon will have a moderate government.

Paul Salem, Beirut-based director of the Carnegie Middle East Center, told the Lebanese television station LBC that 'the victory of the majority will be comforting for the West.'

The election came a few days after President Barack Obama called for a 'new beginning between the United States and Muslims.'

'A victory for Hezbollah, which the US considers a terrorist organization, would have been a setback for American influence and policies in the region, and further the role and influence of Syria and Iran,' said analyst Hilal Khassan.

At the local level, observers believe the elections did not change anything within parliament, and that the only new thing that emerged was the loss of opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun in predominantly Christian areas.

'Both Shiite movements Hezbollah and Amal candidates captured all 27 seats allocated to their sect in parliament, but the real surprise was the Christian vote because it showed that it was more united behind the majority,' political analyst Shafik al Masri told the German news agency Monday.

'The elections showed that Aoun has lost much of his popularity among his own sect,' Masri said. 'In the previous elections in 2005 Aoun had some 70 per cent of the votes of the Christians in his areas, but in this election Aoun took only 40 percent.'

Election observers told dpa that Aoun won in areas where there are Shiite voters loyal to his allies Hezbollah, like in south Lebanon and Byblos, north of Beirut.

A political member of Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) acknowledged it had been defeated in Lebanon's parliamentary elections.

'The vote shows a victory for the March 14 coalition, (headed by Sunni Muslim leader Saad Hariri) and also shows a defeat for the Lebanese who had hoped for change in this country,' said Michel de Chadarevian.

He said the FPM was disappointed with the election results but would respect the outcome.

'We had believed in the Lebanese people but unfortunately they chose a different path,' Chadarevian said, adding that his party would now work with the majority to form a government of national unity.

'Lebanon can only be governed by a national unity government,' he said. 'Even if we had won we would have formed a national unity government.'

According to Masri, the election scene did not change much since 2005 when the current majority swept to power on a wave of popular anger following the assassination the same year of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri.

Newspapers on Monday led on the election dealing a blow to the Hezbollah alliance which fought a tight race in the parliamentary elections on Sunday.

'They were broken ... Lebanon wins,' read a headline in pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, in reference to the Hezbollah alliance.

'The majority is back,' screamed al-Akhbar newspaper, which is close to Hezbullah. 'The opposition suffered a great defeat.'

Al-Akhbar warned that Lebanon now stood at a crossroads that could lead to a political crisis similar to that which brought the country close to civil war in May 2008.

'Elections once again lead to a parliament of national divisions,' was the headline in the pro-opposition daily As-Safir.

As-Safir, however, questioned whether the two camps will now be able to form a national unity government. 'Should we already brace ourselves for a new political crisis?' it asked.

Prime Minister Fouad Seniora, who is a member of the majority and who won a seat in the new parliament, told reporters: 'We are on the threshold of a new stage, and we should try and understand the changes that are coming to our country and the region, and be prepared.'