Expectant Egypt poised for return of ElBaradei (News Feature)

By Yasmin el-Rifae Feb 18, 2010, 15:56 GMT

Cairo - When the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Mohamed ElBaradei returns to his native Egypt on Friday, the country's opposition, media - and police - will be watching his every move carefully.

ElBaradei, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has not announced an intention to run in Egypt's 2011 presidential elections. And he is, as an independent, constitutionally prohibited from doing so.

But that hasn't dampened rising speculation that he may run - from both potential backers and opponents - making his arrival on Friday into a national event.

'We expect many people to greet ElBaradei, whether supporters or opposition,' an Egyptian Interior Ministry official told the German Press Agency dpa.

'This is why we warn that any violations of the laws or damage to the airport's facilities will be met with severe measures amid the high security presence,' the official said.

The former Egyptian diplomat's name was bandied about as a possible presidential contender long before he issued a statement in December blasting state interference in Egyptian elections - and saying he would run only if the country amended the constitution to allow independents to contest office.

Amendments to Article 76 of the Egyptian constitution, passed in 2007, require presidential candidates to have been a member of a legal party's senior leadership for at least a year. ElBaradei has held no such post.

ElBaradei said that he would consider running only if there was independent judicial and international supervision of the elections, if there was a complete review of the electoral rolls and if all candidates had equal access to the media.

Amendments to Article 88 of the constitution - also passed in 2007 - removed judicial supervision of elections in favour of supervision by 'an independent electoral commission' that would include some judges.

Senior Egyptian judges initially refused to certify the 2005 presidential elections - Egypt's first with more than one candidate - citing reports of irregularities.

Nevertheless, long-time opposition activists such as George Ishaq, leader of the Kifaya ('Enough') opposition movement whose street protests captured international attention in those 2005 presidential elections, are pinning their hopes on an ElBaradei candidacy.

'ElBaradei's return is important for Egypt,' Ishaq told dpa. 'He is a man of high stature and he presents a new vision, one that is compatible with the desires of this nation.'

'He wants to change the political landscape, the corruptions and fraud that have controlled our elections,' Ishaq said. 'When you compare this great man the people currently in power, it makes you sad for Egypt.'

Two young opposition activists were detained eariler this week for painting walls in Cairo with slogans backing political change and supporting ElBaradei.

Fellow activist Amal Sharaf told dpa the slogans included '(Egyptian President Hosny) Mubarak's Regime Has Come To An End,' and 'Support Change, Support ElBaradei.'

'The police are trying to undermine the popular reception for ElBaradei,' Sharaf asserted.

Ishaq said he recognizes that ElBaradei cannot run. But he hopes the former diplomat will meet with political groups, hold conferences, and bring his criticisms of the government on a tour of the country.

And if ElBaradei somehow does manage to run, Ishaq says he will back him.

Others, less politically active, were more cynical.

'It's all a sham. Whoever the regime wants to win, will win,' Samira, a 55-year-old domestic worker, told dpa.

'I don't have a particular position on the man as a presidential candidate,' said a 27-year-old development worker who preferred anonymity. 'I don't know enough about him, his politics, or his managerial record to make a judgment.'

'If he can win, then he's the person that the powers in the regime agreed upon,' he added. 'He is, therefore, not the person I want to rule Egypt.'