Iraqis uneasy about US reduction, but demand full departure (Feature)

By German Press Agency Aug 16, 2010, 6:02 GMT

Baghdad - In the final days of 2009, two suicide bombers struck in Anbar province in an attempt to kill the non-partisan governor. He survived, but lost a hand in the explosions which took 24 lives and wounded over 50 others.

Qasim Abid Muhammad, with scars and just one arm, worries that the United States withdrawal of combat troops could leave a gaping hole in security with fatal consequences.

At month's end, after more than seven years of war, 50,000 US troops will remain, but their combat role will be reduced to counter- terrorism actions and more emphasis will be put on training and advising.

'The US military withdrawal is a national demand, but the Americans should not leave a vacuum that allows security violations,' Muhammad said in the lead up to the planned scaling down of operations.

Even Tariq Aziz, the former deputy prime minister and close advisor to Saddam Hussein, recently said in a newspaper interview that US President Barack Obama 'is leaving Iraq to the wolves.'

'When you make a mistake you need to correct a mistake, not leave Iraq to its death,' said Aziz, hardly a pro-Washington advocate.

The government in Baghdad differs, as does the official line from Washington.

'Since June of last year, Iraqi forces have assumed management of the security file in Iraqi cities, and proved to be reliable in many religious and national occasions,' Adnan al-Asadi, a deputy interior minister, told the German Press Agency dpa.

He was referring to the gradual handover of patrols to Iraqi troops from their US counterparts, to be solidified at the end of this month.

But in many ways they also are failing. A consistent upturn in violence has plagued the country in recent months. Symbolic of the challenges are the AK-47 assault rifles carried by simple traffic policemen to protect themselves from increasing attacks.

Following the 'surge ' - the 2007 massive increase in US troops in and their wholesale campaign against insurgents - violence fell sharply.

But with the US withdrawal growing nearer and the country in political deadlock since the disputed March 7 parliamentary elections, the numbers have taken a turn for the worse.

Figures from an Iraqi rights group, the Monitor of Constitutional Freedom and Bill of Rights, indicate that about 400 civilians died every month during the first six months of 2010, and another 1,200 were injured every month. Those numbers are slightly higher than in the same period of 2009, despite the declared successes of the surge.

July, with an estimated 500 people killed, was the deadliest month in the two years since benefits were felt from the US surge, the 2007 campaign led by General David Petraeus who is now commanding forces in Afghanistan.

The renewed violence is worrisome, although it is just a fraction of the 2006 inter-ethnic attacks that saw up to 3,000 civilians killed in a month.

For many though, the problem lies with the US, which led a coalition of troops in the invasion, searching for weapons of mass destruction that were never found.

The decommissioning of the Iraqi army and other key institutions after the occupation is widely seen as the strategy that opened up the country to the turbulence that has become synonymous with the name Iraq.

Majashe Khalaf al-Jabouri, a 65-year-old retired man in the ethnically diverse and oil rich northern city of Kirkuk, is certain things will be better after the US leaves.

In a town that has seen strong sectarian strife between Arabs and Kurds, al-Jabouri believes a harmony can be found, but that would first require a stimulant to reduce support for insurgents, who say they are targeting occupation forces.

But others fear the worst. Political and ethnic tensions could stoke the level of violence even more.

'Minorities will be the main victim. They are marginalized and a victim of the big religious parties, terrorist groups and regional agendas,' said Mustafa Mahmoud, aged 47, from Kirkuk.

'The presence of the Americans is important and there should be guarantees for everyone of Iraq's unity before their departure,' said Mahmoud, a member of the Turkmen minority.

However, despite the talk of withdrawal, many Iraqis do not see the August pullout as a major game changer.

To the pessimists fearing a worst case scenario, Washington might just be saying 'apres nous, le deluge,' (After us, the deluge) but some are quick to point out that it's too soon to speak of an Iraq without the US.

'Even if US (combat) troops pulled out, there are still 50,000 US soldiers in Iraq, which means that occupation still sits heavy on Iraqis' shoulders,' Khodeir al-Maadidi, an Iraqi professor at Anbar University said.