Arab activists urge a "Tunisia uprising" domino effect (News Feature)

By Nehal El-Sherif Jan 15, 2011, 16:07 GMT

Cairo - Activists across the Middle East are now calling for change in their countries following what they term the 'Tunisian uprising.' But experts say a domino effect is unlikely to be forthcoming.

Opposition groups in Egypt announced their support for Tunisians, and hundreds staged a protest near the Tunisian embassy in Cairo late on Friday, shortly after many posted online messages congratulating protestors in Tunisia for the 'uprising' and 'victory' after a month of escalating protests led former Tunisian president Zine el-Abidine ben Ali to give up power and flee his country.

Yet on Saturday, only 50 demonstrators were able to hold a small protest near the embassy. They were forced to stand further away from the building as security trucks and hundreds of security forces were deployed there, eyewitnesses said. Streets nearby were cordoned off, and cars were not allowed close by.

'The events in Tunisia will certainly change the dynamics of the region, after Tunisian protestors got the region's opposition groups emboldened and inspired,' said Shadi Hamid, the director of research at the Brookings Doha Center.

Although the past months will remain part of the Arab consciousness, Hamid says, the Tunisian scenario will be difficult to be replicated in Egypt soon.

The reason, Hamid believes, is the strong presence of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest opposition group.

'Egypt always uses the Islamists card to frustrate change,' Hamid told the German Press Agency dpa. 'The Islamists' card always scares people domestically and internationally.'

President Hosny Mubarak, 82, faces increasing dissatisfaction over the lack of democratic reform and economic problems in the country, a key ally for the United States.

Yet activists remain hopeful, as they replaced their profile pictures on social networking sites with red Tunisian flags.

'Mubarak, there is an airplane waiting for you to leave too,' wrote many activists on social networking websites they have been using for more than two years to call for protests opposing Mubarak's 30 years in office.

The Cairo-based Arabic Network for Human Rights Information 'expressed joy and congratulated the Tunisian people on forcing the dictator (former Tunisian president Zine el-Abadine) Ben Ali to leave' the country.

'Shame on all Arabic dictators and their supporters; marionette political parties, corrupted journalists and complicit organizations,' the network added.

The Muslim Brotherhood described developments in Tunisia as a message revealing how 'Arab and Islamic peoples are able to achieve their demands for freedom despite how long they have lived under tyranny and injustice.'

Syrians also expressed joy at the 'victory of the people.'

'The will of our brothers in Tunisia finally imposed itself on the forces of oppression,' said Abu-Jasim Qabani, a Syrian, while shopping in a Damascus market.

Usama al-Hassan, an enthusiastic Syrian university student, agrees with him and thinks that 'this Tunisian experience should be taught at schools.'

However, it is only Algeria and Jordan where the situation is most similar to Tunisia, Hamid says. Algeria is one of the most politically volatile in the region. In Jordan, there is economic growth on the surface, but a large group of educated youth suffer from unemployment.

Jordanian activists staged a sit-in before the Tunisian embassy Saturday expressing support for the Tunisian people, one day after thousands protested, demanding the resignation of the kingdom's prime minister, Samir Rifai.

The protests came despite measures adopted by the government earlier this week to ease price hikes which had spawned an initial wave of protests.

'We are going to hear more about how Arab leaders are creating new jobs, easing economic tensions and lowering food prices now,' Hamid added.

'But since people heard this rhetoric before, time after another citizens will feel disappointed,' he said.

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