Egypt at the crossroads: politics after Mubarak (News Feature)

By Anne-Beatrice Clasmann Feb 14, 2011, 15:15 GMT

Cairo/Istanbul - Since the fall of long-time Egyptian president Hosny Mubarak last week, things which not long ago were outside the realms of possibility suddenly seem within reach.

In these heady days of change, Egyptians are divided into roughly five camps; those who are still celebrating, those who are worried about what the future holds, those who plan to turn the revolution to their benefit, the losers, and finally, the strategists.

The smallest group is probably that of the strategists, who are already making their plans for the coming elections.

The transition phase, as foreseen by the army, is to last six months. But for up-and-coming politicians and new parties it will be a challenge to transform themselves into a credible alternative to the Mubarak regime in such a short space of time.

It is the young who are mostly still caught up in a whirl of ecstatic excitement. Many still cannot grasp the fact that the president, whose speeches and photos have been their constant companions since birth, has now been pensioned off to his holiday home.

At the same time, it is very important to the young that those party officials, police officers, business people and thugs who took part in violent attempts to put the protests are put on trial.

The second most important demand of this group, which includes many of the April 6 youth movement, is that all political prisoners be released.

But aside from appeals for more democracy and rule of law, the young have so far failed to come up with concrete plans for the founding of new parties or a specific vision for the future.

Egyptian 'worriers,' who did not take part in the anti-government protests for fear of violence and anarchy in the streets, simply wish that the transitional period will pass without further bloodshed or economic damage.

They never bothered to vote in the past and see stability as the country's top priority. Business people, who are worried about their savings, are a prominent part of this category.

One of the largest groups is made up of those who are setting themselves up to make the most of the revolution, those who have stored up their grievances over the past years and now want to waste no time in addressing them.

This category includes police officers, who feel they have been belittled by their bosses, journalists, whose rise to the top was hindered by their critical stance towards the regime, nurses, who feel their pay is too low, and former government officials, who are now hoping for a political comeback.

The revolution's losers - the party functionaries, regime hangers- on, and corrupt business people are now keeping a low profile.

Even the once pugnacious foreign minister, Ahmed Abul Gheit, who stayed loyal to Mubarak till the end, has held his tongue.

The website of Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP), which was also disempowered by the army's dissolution of parliament, is defunct.

The few strategists, who are now preparing themselves for the promised elections, include the old opposition parties, politicians who had distanced themselves from Mubarak in the past 20 years, as well as the largest opposition party, the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Brotherhood, with its Islamist roots, intends only to contest parliamentary elections, and to refrain from nominating a presidential candidate - though they will probably give their support to one.

The Brotherhood, which was banned but tolerated under Mubarak and which doesn't have as many supporters as it may have had five years ago, can count on receiving around a quarter of votes today, according to experts.

It can profit from the fact that unlike other opposition groups, it is very well organized and also refused to compromise with the NPD.

The race to become president it still wide open. Of the politicians who have already expressed an interest in the job the head of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, an Egyptian national, probably has the best chance.

He has struck a chord with the youth but is also old and serious enough not to frighten the bourgeoisie off.

He stands for the fight against corruption, independent justice, and a critical relationship with Israel.

His avowed liberalism marks him out from Nobel Peace Prize laureate and leading opposition figure Mohammed ElBaradei, who is more sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood and their demands for an 'Islamification' of the state.

Egyptians have little time for the theories put forward by Western commentators concerning possible role models - ranging from the Saudis' radical Islamism to Turkey's secular state and mildly Islamist government - for their new style of politics.

They would rather look to their own history for inspiration, from their uprising against the British to the Arab nationalism fostered by former president Gamal Abdel Nasser.

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