ANALYSIS: European Union a key player in Palestinian statehood vote

By Clare Byrne Sep 20, 2011, 17:11 GMT

Paris - Europe's attempts to dissuade Palestinian leaders from asking the United Nations to fully recognize a Palestinian state - by trying to muster European unity on a watered-down Palestinian position - hung in the balance Monday.

The 27-country EU has been hoping to deliver the support of most of its members for some form of improved Palestinian status, in return for a commitment by the Palestinians to avoid a showdown in the UN Security Council on full statehood.

That ambition was left hanging by a thread after Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas announced Friday he would go directly to the Security Council to seek the Council's support for full UN membership.

Israel, the US and several Western powers have said they fear that the vote could derail the stalled Middle East peace process, and say any Palestinian state should be the outcome of negotiations with Israel.

The US, one of five veto holders on the 15-nation Council, has said it will use its veto to prevent the resolution passing, if the Palestinians amass the nine votes in favour.

To avoid using its veto, the US hopes to get at least six other members to vote against or abstain, among them: Britain, Germany, France, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Colombia, Gabon and Portugal.

Britain and France, which are also veto-holders, have not said how they would vote.

Britain is deemed likely to either vote against or abstain. French President Nicolas Sarkozy has said France will 'meet its responsibilities.'

'Our position will be guided by the triple concern of preserving the prospect of a relaunch of the negotiations process, avoiding a diplomatic confrontation and maintaining European unity,' the French foreign ministry said on Monday.

To avoid being corralled into rejecting or refusing to endorse a Palestinian state, the EU and US have been attempting to head off the vote.

The EU has been trying to steer the vote towards the UN General Assembly, where the Palestinians could go for the lesser prize of being recognized as a non-member state - a step up from the Palestinians' current observer status - dubbed 'the Vatican option.'

With over 120 UN members already recognizing a Palestinian state, far more than the simple majority of the 193 members required, the Palestinians are practically guaranteed of a victory.

French diplomats said last week that the EU was offering to try get that number up to around 160 by getting as many EU members and would-be members on board, in return for a watered-down resolution in the General Assembly.

'A less ambitious text could get up to 160 votes if [EU foreign policy chief Cathy] Ashton could get all 27 EU members and their allies on board,' they said.

Negotiations revolved around the conditions for recognizing a Palestinian state, what sort of UN status it would have, and the resumption of peace talks with Israel.

Getting all 27 EU members on board was a 'very complicated task', they said.

The biggest threat to a unified EU position was the number of countries threatening to abstain, the diplomats said, citing the Netherlands and the Czech Republic among the more recalcitrant members.

Reports from Paris and Brussels suggested that, in trying to agree on a lowest common denominator position, the EU had moved closer to the US, which is pushing for the Middle East quartet (UN, US, EU and Russia) to lead a resumption of peace talks as an alternative to the vote on statehood.

Sources in France and Brussels say the EU would back a strong Quartet statement calling for the resumption of peace talks within a few weeks, and demanding both sides commit to reaching a conclusion within a given time-frame, in tandem with a watered-down General Assembly resolution.

However, it was not clear whether such a package would be agreeable to the Palestinians.

Abbas said Monday he was under 'huge' pressure to abandon his statehood gambit, meaning the General Assembly option might be more realistic.

Former EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and former Finnish president and Nobel Peace laureate Martti Ahtisaari in a letter published Monday for the European Council on Foreign Relations urged Europe to vote 'Yes' if it came down to the General Assembly.

'It is not often that Europe has the chance to play a pivotal role on the world stage,' they noted.

By voting yes, the Europeans would keep the two-state solution alive, validate their investment in a functioning Palestinian state and possibly even help the US by strengthening its hand in dealing with Israel.

By moving toward recognition of Palestinian statehood within 1967 borders, the EU also would reinforce the legitimacy of Israel's own existence, they argued.

Plus, they said, 'anything other than a 'yes' would expose Europeans to charges of double standards from both post-revolutionary governments and conservative Arab regimes (for different reasons) for failing to support rights for Palestinians while advocating them elsewhere.'