ANALYSIS: Palestinians heading for high noon at UN

By Ofira Koopmans and Jeff Abramowitz Sep 23, 2011, 8:31 GMT

Tel Aviv - There are only a few hours left before Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' historic moment at the United Nations.

Despite frantic efforts - by Washington, the Quartet of international peace sponsors, European diplomats and others - to reach a compromise, Abbas remains determined to submit his application for Palestine to become a UN member state.

He has said he will do so immediately after his address to the UN General Assembly.

His defiance brought him a public slap on the wrist, when US President Barack Obama made what local observers called the most pro-Israeli speech of his presidency.

It was as if Obama signalled to the Palestinian leader: You cannot slam the door in the president's face and expect him to go meekly away, even if internal US electoral considerations played a role too.

The Palestinian application will have to go through the Security Council, where it needs nine of the 15 votes at stake to pass. But even if Israel and Washington fail to muster a blocking minority of seven votes against, the US has said it will use its veto, dooming the bid for full membership to failure.

For Abbas, it is too late to back down and disappoint his public.

In Friday's address, he is likely to make an impassioned plea for the Palestinians to join the community of nations.

The speech, if there are no delays, is scheduled for shortly after noon in New York, early evening in the Palestinian territories, when tens of thousands are expected flock to West Bank city centres and watch a live feed on giant screens.

After the speech, mosque minarets will call for special prayers and church bells will ring.

But what happens next?

There is much speculation that after the submission of the application, the Security Council vote may be deferred - by weeks, months or even one year - until the last day of the current General Assembly session, so as to give peace negotiations a chance.

Palestinian delegation member Yasser Abed Rabbo said Thursday the Palestinians would accept no long delay for political reasons, but it seemed he left the door open a crack when he said they may accept some delay for 'procedural' reasons.

The Quartet of Middle East mediators - the US, UN, European Union and Russia - may issue a statement, calling for relaunching currently stalled talks in one month, with a one-year deadline to them.

The Palestinians may meanwhile, and as a second step, ask the General Assembly for acceptance as a non-member state, like the Vatican and formerly Switzerland.

That status does not require Security Council recommendation first. In the 193-member General Assembly, Abed Rabbo said, the Palestinians have the support of 150 member states.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is scheduled to address the General Assembly shortly after Abbas, is expected to reiterate his call for a return to direct negotiations with no pre-conditions.

Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Thursday that the premier will not make any new, far-reaching offer.

If so, the purpose of his speech will be public relations. He is likely to try and explain Israel's position and argue that the Palestinians are to blame for the absence of negotiations, because they insist on a settlement freeze as a pre-condition.

Israel agreed to one a year ago, but the Palestinians refused to sit down, and when they did they almost immediately broke off the talks because the freeze was not extended, he will argue.

If Netanyahu fails to convince that he is sincere about wanting peace, he risks further isolation for Israel.

But if he gives in to Palestinian and international pressure, he risks losing his right-wing coalition.

A commentator for Israel's biggest-selling daily, Yediot Ahronot, summed up the tragedy of the current stalemate:

Both Netanyahu and Abbas want peace. 'They really want it,' said Nahum Barnea. 'But they don't want to pay the price.

'That is why Netanyahu wants negotiations without a peace deal, and Abbas wants international recognition without negotiations.'