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ANALYSIS: Blair's pull-out plan signals British endgame in Iraq

By Anna Tomforde Feb 21, 2007, 13:51 GMT

London - As mourners gathered for the funeral of 21-year-old Private Luke Simpson in a small town on Yorkshire, British Prime Minister Tony Blair stood up Wednesday in parliament in London to launch the 'draw-down' of British troops from Iraq. The British leader, paying tribute to Private Simpson, said the young soldier had died for a 'safer and more secure world.' Almost exactly four years after the allied invasion of Iraq, and on the burial of Britain's 132nd military victim, Blair said he felt 'a deep sense of responsibility' for ending the violence. 'Of course I am devastated by the numbers of people who have died in Iraq. But it's not a question of being culpable...it's a question of putting the situation right,' he argued. His announcement of a phased withdrawal of troops from the current level of 7,100, to below 5,000 by this summer, was carefully timed. It was dictated in equal measure by growing military pressure and Blair's desire to save his legacy, analysts believe. Blair, who is due to leave office later this year, clearly had his own legacy and the political future of his Labour Party in mind, given the deep unpopularity of the Iraq commitment and the prospect of devastating Labour losses in local elections in May. 'After being dogged by the debacle in Iraq for four years, today's statement allows him to leave office conveying the impression - albeit a limited one - that the UK intervention has had some success,' the Financial Times commented. Militarily, the writing had been on the wall ever since the head of the British Army, General Sir Richard Dannatt, warned publicly last October that the presence of UK troops in Iraq was 'exacerbating security problems' and called for a pull-out 'some time soon.' A recent opinion poll showed that while at the start of the conflict some 70 per cent of Iraqis welcomed British troops in Basra, the mood had been completely reversed with 95 per cent of Iraqis now opposing the British military presence. Blair, according to analysts, has seized the first available opportunity to respond to disquiet among the military and widespread popular opposition to the war. The British leader, who had until two weeks ago rejected a timetable as a 'disastrous signal' for those fighting in Iraq, has now come to the conclusion that the security situation on the ground in Basra and the surrounding provinces is sufficently under control for troops to be cut. The plan is to move British servicemen, who have recently come under increased attack from roadside bombs, out of the centre of Basra to a single headquarter building at the airport from where they would fulfil a 'supporting role.' Iraqi police and security forces, trained by the British, would take over 'the main frontline control of security within the city' while the British would give support where needed and help 'monitor the border with Iran,' officials in London have said. However, as recently as last week, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Barham Saleh warned that Basra might not be ready to take over the running of its own affirs. It was important to ascertain that a British withdrawal did 'not undermine security and create a vacuum,' Saleh warned. Critics of Blair's plan in London have expressed similar reservations about a possibly 'premature' troop reduction, and Blair himself has stated repeatedly that any cuts remained firmly linked to the 'security situation on the ground.' Nonetheless, the British move, coming after four years of Blair 'standing shoulder to shoulder' with US President George W Bush over Iraq, is likely to prompt calls for similar troop withdrawals from smaller coalition nations. In that sense, it could mark a turning point in the conflict, commentators said. Splits in the Blair-Bush alliance became evident late last year when the British leader embraced a report by the US Iraq Study Group which recommended a prompt withdrawal of troops from Iraq, while Bush appeared to distance himself from the report, and instead decided to send a further 21,000 troops to Iraq. One leading expert, welcoming the British move, said that strategy differences between London and Washington had been clear for some time, as it became increasingly difficult for British forces to retain their double commitment in Iraq and Afghanistan. 'We can now say to the US we have made a vast and helpful effort for four years,' said Lord Garden, a member of the Liberal Party and former former Air Marshall. Britain could now concentrate its efforts on Afghanistan while the Americans would be left to deal with Iraq, he added. Blair has also made clear that he views Britain's role in Iraq in the wider context of the need for an 'overall Middle East strategy.' By launching a disengagement from Iraq, he will hope to signal to key Middle Eastern governments that their time had come to 'stabilize power' in the region, analysts said. However, some warned that Blair's pull-out plan could backfire. 'You don't want any sectarian fighting to arise as our troops withdraw,' Conservative foreign policy spokesman William Hague said. A military analyst, who did not want to be named, put it more bluntly: 'If conditions in Iraq worsen, the withdrawal process could still blow up.' © 2007 dpa - Deutsche Presse-Agentur

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Jacob SteinFeb 21st, 2007 - 14:20:25

Partner in 'crime' is abandoning his friend. Guess, tired of crying wolf in UK.

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Hogan TerranFeb 21st, 2007 - 14:35:03

Maybe we should ask Tony Blair to send those 1600 British troops to our southern border since Bush doesn’t have the guts to do it.

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Ric CarlsonFeb 21st, 2007 - 14:39:45

I admire PM Blair for his courage to do a pullout strategy. The US needs to determine such a plan. We clearly cannot just tell Iraq we are going home, but it's clear we cannot win, in the general and normal venacular of what WIN means. Saddam is gone and Iraq is working/struggling to establish a government. What we, the US, need to come to grips with is Iraq is in a state of Civil War which we cannot help with AND we need to start understanding that the US version of democracy doesn't fit for everyone else in the world - it works for America but we cannot expect cultures steeped in Centuries Old traditions to just throw that out and adopt what the US does. Can't and won't work.

Hopefully our Military and political leaders will come together and get a new strategy in place related to Iraq which most likely needs the input and support of other Middle East countries. The US won't solve this regardless how many people we send to Iraq and how many of our soldiers give the ultimate sacrifice.

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GrazbutFeb 21st, 2007 - 14:47:13

Blair is a career man. For the sake of getting any kind of respect later, he knows he must set the withdrawal of British troops from Iraq in motion before he leaves office (later this year). He will never admit that the original invasion was both immoral and unwise. He has said 'God will judge me'. I (and many others) hope an international criminal court will get hold of him before he meets his maker. Yes, it'll be a blow for Bush. But Bush is even more culpable than Blair for the ruin of Iraq and the misery of its people. While the Americans would like to pull out, they should pay the (financial) price to set Iraq to rights, before following Blair.

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jimmy eat oneFeb 21st, 2007 - 14:53:50

I agree cut and run there is no saving Iraq at this stage. Should have left after they got what they wanted to begin with. It would have saved trillions of dollars and thousands of US and Friendly's lives. You can't save a country that kills its own neighbors because of there race. It's just a tragedy but Darwin’s theory will prevail and hopefully the lesser of the two evils will as well.

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Ignacio GeneralFeb 21st, 2007 - 14:57:01

I guess Blair is finally understanding that democracy cannot be imposed, as that is a flagrant contradiction. People and nations have to evolve by themselves, not by military interventions of countries who do not understand their culture.

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Michael HandyFeb 21st, 2007 - 15:02:55

Tony Blair should be hung, castrated, and shot for pulling out of the war. My great country, the USA never pulled out of any of the World Wars to save his countries ass and the rest of the world. Wow, he thinks 132 dead is some great deal? How many men have this great country lost? 2 or 3 thousand? Maybe we should pull out and let his shitty Army, if you want to call it that, would be up shit's creek without a paddle, wouldn't they? I used to oppose the war, and i still do, I care about the troops loss', but we are fighting against terroists who kill innocent people and won't stop hiding and come get what they have coming to them. I will say this, if the USA and it's so-called Allies don't win this war and get Osama, the whole world better be ready to be destroyed because these terroists will come after them sooner or later. The UK owes the United States for the freedom they enjoy, because it was the USA that came in during the World Wars and kicked everyone's asses and made it so the Axis powers are no longer in existense, it's been the United States that have stood up for every countries freedom and rights throughout history. So world, you owe it to the United States for being free and you owe us for the lives that have been given up in your struggles for freedom.

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Libs SuckFeb 21st, 2007 - 15:13:56

Liberals Suck!

Cut and Run = their foreign policy.

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AdamFeb 21st, 2007 - 15:20:54

Michael - You are living proof our government and media has been misinforming the American public. Your opinions were given to you, and you make the Neocons proud.

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ChrisFeb 21st, 2007 - 15:45:40

People just don't get it. US had its own selfish motives for invading Iraq and the plans that they had did not succeed. Now they are in their own filthy dirt which they can not get out off. Because, if they do get out, it would bring shame to them and would wound their ego! America you are in deep shit!! You better get out of Iraq sooner to save billions or trillions of tax-payers money!

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