ANALYSIS: Experts sceptical over outcome of Jordan's king US trip

By Abdul Jalil Mustafa Feb 28, 2007, 16:11 GMT

Amman - An imminent trip to the United States by Jordan's King Abdullah II provides a 'historic' opportunity to revive the Middle East peace process, prominent analysts and politicians said Wednesday.

However, they told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa that judging by previous experience there are 'no guarantees' that the US administration will respond to the monarch's warning against the risks inherent in a failure to forge an early peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians.

'I think it is a historic trip by all standards during which the king stands a very good chance of alerting both the US public and the administration to the seriousness of a failure to ensure a resumption of the peace talks,' said Mohammad Masri from the state-run Strategic Studies Centre of the University of Jordan.

'But responding to the monarch's efforts is something else. We don't have guarantees that this will happen,' he added.

King Abdullah arrived on Tuesday in London en route to Washington and held talks with British Prime Minister Tony Blair on the prospects of bringing the Palestinians and Israelis back to the negotiating table as soon as possible.

Over the past few days the monarch was also involved in a new round of diplomacy that included visits to Egypt and Saudi Arabia to formulate what officials described as a unified stance by the pillars of the so-called Arab moderate camp.

In Washington, the Jordanian head of state is due to conduct talks with President George W Bush, address a joint session of the two houses of the US Congress and meet with leading shapers of US public opinion.

'The monarch is trying to affect not only the US and Israeli governments, but also the public opinion in the two countries,' Masri said.

During an interview with the Israel's broadcaster Channel 2 last week, King Abdullah cautioned against failure to resume peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians this year.

'There is a good chance the US administration will respond if the king sways the (US) Congress over the urgent need for re-launching the Middle East (peace) process, given the fact that the Democratic Party has a majority in both houses,' he added.

Masri contended that King Abdullah's move would 'draw backing' from two elements - the Saudi-brokered Mecca deal between the Fatah group of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and the ruling Islamist movement Hamas, as well as the pan-Arab peace initiative that was adopted by the Arab summit in Beirut in 2002.

The February 8 Mecca agreement provided for the formation of a Palestinian national unity government that put an end to the internal Palestinian fighting.

But the deal left a key issue unresolved - Hamas' recognition of Israel.

Under the provisions of the accord, the hard-line group agreed to 'respect' the agreements already concluded by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) with the Jewish state.

However, Israel and the United States so far demanded that Hamas unequivocally comply with the Quartet's conditions - recognition of Israel and renouncing violence.

Abbas, who has just wound up a European tour to muster support for the Mecca agreement, said the Palestinian Authority, which he leads, was the party concerned with resuming peace talks with Israel.

The Palestinian president and King Abdullah are teaming up to convince the world's major donors including the United States and the European Union to lift the financial siege they imposed on the Palestinian Authority after Hamas scored a landslide victory in January 2005.

Islamists, who form the backbone of the Jordanian opposition, support the Mecca accord but cast doubt on the outcome of King Abdullah's trip across the Atlantic.

'A solution for the Palestinian question lies with us and not with them,' Secretary General of the Islamic Action Front, Zaki Bani Ershaid, told dpa, referring to the Americans and Israelis.

'The objective of the trip cannot be the revival of the peace process, because peace cannot be forged with those who are hostile to peace,' he said.

He contended that the Jordanian government 'should use all the cards at its disposal including the recall of its ambassador from Tel Aviv.'

'We have a real opportunity to show due support to the Mecca agreement and put real pressure on the United States, which is currently facing a dilemma in Iraq,' Bani Ershaid said.

He cited Jordan's failure to force Israel to stop its excavations near al-Aqsa Mosque as evidence that the Israelis and the Americans were not going to respond to the king's peace endeavours.

The Israelis 'violate the Wadi Araba agreement (the Jordanian- Israeli peace process of 1994). How can we then trust their assertions that they want peace?' he said.

Under the peace pact, Israel recognized Jordan as custodian of all Islamic and Christian holy places in East Jerusalem, which the Jewish state captured from the Hashemite Kingdom in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.

Ayman Safadi, the editor-in-chief of Jordan's al-Ghad newspaper, stated that the credibility of the moderate Arab states would be at stake if King Abdullah's Washington mission failed.

'The United States should realize that the moderate Arabs are the parties that can help re-establish security and stability in Iraq and stand in the face of extremism and terrorism in the region,' he said.

'But, they are weak and their role lies in the restoration of their credibility. A successful solution for the Palestinian issue is the key to the rehabilitation of moderate forces and the addressing of regional crises,' he added.