ANALYSIS: Elections in Iran - Referendum for changes

Mar 7, 2008, 2:08 GMT

Tehran - After more than 30 months of the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iranians will show in next week's parliamentary elections whether they still support the presidential course or rather vote for changes.

The March 14 elections will, in effect, be a pro- or contra- Ahmadinejad referendum.

More than 43.7 million Iranians over the age of 18 are eligible to vote for more than 4,440 candidates vying for 290 seats.

The 30 seats in Tehran are politically the most important, as in the provinces technical rather than political aspects are considered.

'If the silent majority, which did not attend the elections last time (2004), attend the polls this time, the presidential camp will be in trouble,' said former vice-president Mohammad-Ali ABtahi.

Observers believe that a high turnout will benefit Ahmadinejad's opponents, who have called on the people not to remain ignorant of what the elections mean.

'If you keep your voice just for yourself, nothing will ever change,' former president Mohammad Khatami said.

There are three main factions - the pro-Ahmadinejad camp, the reformist opposition, and a new conservative faction which has emerged as an alternative to these two.

The Ahmadinejad camp consists mainly of of the faction which had in the last four years has formed the legislative majority. Top candidate is Parliament Speaker Gholam-Hossein Hadad-Adel.

The reformists have formed a coalition led by ex-presidents Khatami and Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani. Most of their candidates have, however, been disqualified for ideological reasons by the senate-like Guardian Council. So they have no top candidate, and would be more than happy to win even one-third of the seats.

Another reformist faction running in the elections is the Etemad Melli party led by former parliament speaker Mehdi Karrubi who is close to Khatami.

Observers have, however, focused on the new conservative faction led by former chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani. Last October he resigned from his post owing to differences with Ahmadinejad over the president's uncompromising nuclear policies.

The new faction, also supported by Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, is loyal to the system, but unlike Ahmadinejad follows a more moderate course.

'The criteria of the voters have changed - the economic crisis has made the economy the main issue, and even political considerations tend towards that direction,' a political expert in Tehran said.

Despite high oil prices, it is inflation - ranging between 20 to 30 per cent - that remains people's main problem.

'With the high oil prices we could have golden years - but Ahmadinejad and his people have succeeded in turning gold into recession,' said reformer Hossein Marashi.

Meanwhile Iranian foreign policy - including the nuclear dispute and Ahmadinejad's anti-Semitic rhetoric - have in the last two years harmed the country.

'Unnecessary and totally irrelevant remarks (on Israel) have brought the country to the edge of international isolation,' said the spokesman of the reformist coalition, Abollah Nasseri.

'Three UN resolutions (against Iran in connection with the nuclear dispute) are the achievements of this government. Somebody must control this downward trend.'

The Iranians are, however, fed up with the political quarrels between reformists and conservatives over foreign, social, cultural and economic policies.

'Ideological quarrels will not help the people - what we have to do is solve their problems,' Karrubi said.

Observers grant the new conservative camp - especially as it is supported by the country's clergy as well - better chances than reformists for confronting the Ahmadinejad camp.