ANALYSIS: Unrest in Basra provides a window on Iraq's future

Mar 25, 2008, 13:51 GMT

Cairo - Basra, Iraq's second largest city, is haunted by the fear of killings, kidnappings, and rival Shiite militias and gangs controlling the streets.

Standing behind this chaos are rival political powers and business interests, which dominate local government, the economy, the oil industry and security bodies.

The question is: Can the Iraqi government in Baghdad restore law and order in the oil-rich region in southern Iraq by force after it has failed to do so by decree?

Last year, the government carried out a plan to integrate hundreds of Shiite militiamen into the security forces in the province of Basra, of which the city of Basra is the capital.

'Al-Mahdi Army militia of cleric Moqtada al-Sadr were the only exception. They have refused to be integrated into the security forces,' a local journalist, who spoke on condition of anonymity, explained.

The Al-Mahdi Army says it will disband itself when the foreign occupation of the country ends.

Integrating militiamen into security forces did not improve the security situation in the city because the loyalty of the militiamen- turned policemen is to their political blocs rather than to the nation or the province, the journalist said.

The militiamen serve the interests of rival politicians and businessmen, he noted.

'Besides, the central government is made up of a coalition of blocs, some of which are themselves the same blocs jockeying for power in Basra,' said the journalist.

The Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is dominated by the United Iraqi Alliance, a coalition of mainly Shiite religious parties.

The leader of the alliance is Abdel-Aziz al-Hakim, who is also the leader of one of Basra's main political power: the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC).

Al-Hakim's SIIC and its military wing, the Badr Organization, are the main rivals of radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's al-Mahdi Army and Sadrist Bloc.

Paradoxically, both al-Hakim and al-Sadr are believed to have the backing of different groups within the Iranian regime, the journalist said.

But some groups in Iran are now accused by Sadrists of inciting political rivalry and unrest in Basra, which shares a long border with Iran.

Tehran wants to liquidate the al-Sadr Bloc and is pressing its allies within the Iraqi government to move against the bloc and the al-Mahdi Army in Basra, Sadrist sources said.

The US too is pressing the government to move against the Sadrists, the sources maintained.

Both the US and Iran, albeit at loggerheads over many issues, share an interest in backing al-Hakim against al-Sadr.

The Iraqi government, an ally of both Washington and Tehran, has finally decided to move against al-Sadr's Mahdi Army and his bloc.

The situation in the southern province reveals that instability and violence in Iraq are not only inspired by sectarianism or the result of insurgent activity, but are also motivated by deep-seated political and tribal rivalries.

The Al-Sadr Bloc accuses fellow Shiites from the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council of standing behind the government's campaign against members of the bloc across the south of Iraq and in Baghdad.

Hundreds of Sadrists have been arrested and their offices raided by government security forces over recent months despite a ceasefire announced by al-Sadr last year and extended for six months in February.

The move to launch an offensive against the al-Mahdi Army is the climax of the anti-Sadrists' campaign, the journalist said.

'The government wants to settle political scores with us under the pretext of imposing law and order,' Ali al-Sa'idi, the head of al- Sadr's office in Basra, said.

Al-Hakim and his allies are seeking to get the Sadrists out of the way ahead of the local election slated for October, Sadrists say.

The Sadrist bloc has a wide following in southern provinces, which makes it a serious challenge to other powers like the SIIC, the journalist said.

The Iraqi government denies the Sadrists' accusations, saying demilitarizing Iraqi provinces is an important step in restoring law and order and empowering national security forces.

Baghdad says military offensives launched in Basra and Mosul are part of its drive to assert its control and crack down on insurgents and groups subverting its authority, such as the al-Mahdi Army.