PREVIEW: Iraqis unmoved by Obama's anti-war rhetoric

By Kazem al-Akabi Jul 18, 2008, 13:56 GMT

Baghdad - Many people across the Arab world are excited and amused that a black man with the middle name 'Hussein', who is pledging to end the war in Iraq, has become the Democrats' nominee for president of the US.

But in Iraq, which is preparing to receive Senator Barak Obama this weekend, a sense of realism prevails.

Iraqis do not seem to be swayed by Obama's election campaign rhetoric and pledges on their country.

Obama declared the intention to switch military resources from Iraq to Afghanistan, pledging to seek a way out of Iraq.

He said that he would have all US combat troops out of the Arab country within 16 months of becoming president.

All this, however, sparks fear rather than joy among many Iraqis across the political and sectarian spectrum.

They would like to see foreign troops leave Iraq. But they want a total withdrawal to happen only when Iraqi troops are fully capable of maintaining law and order and the ongoing conflict involving Shiite militias and Sunni extremist insurgents comes to a successful end.

Withdrawal of US troops is not a matter that can be decided solely by Obama, argues Hamid Fadhil, a senior political science professor at Baghdad University.

'This issue is part of a very carefully studied US strategy. We should not forget that the decision to unseat the regime of Saddam Hussein and occupy Iraq was not a decision taken only by the Republican Party,' Fadhil said.

'In fact, the legislation on the liberation of Iraq had been issued under the administration of Bill Clinton, who was a Democratic president,' Fadhil added.

Any withdrawal of US troops from Iraq should be decided after a careful consideration of the situation on the ground, the academic argued.

Parts of Iraq, mainly Baghdad and the Shiite-dominated south, have been enjoying a remarkable drop in violence.

But in other parts, mainly in central and northern non-Kurdish provinces, violence is spiralling. Mosul and Baquba have become what the western Anbar province and Baghdad once were: hotbeds of Sunni insurgency and sectarian violence.

The assistance of US troops is still needed, some Iraqi politicians argue, to fight extremist Sunni groups regrouping in northern and central Iraq after they were driven out of Baghdad and Anbar.

Hence, Obama's talk of troop withdrawal in not realistic, they say.

'Obama's visit is important. It will give him a chance to have a close look at the political process and the security situation in Iraq and discuss Iraqis' wish for a timetable for US troop withdrawal,' said Abbas al-Bayati, a member of parliament's Security and Defence Committee.

'We think that making an announcement on US troop withdrawal is merely part of electioneering. Obama cannot change much in his country's policy in Iraq. His room for manoeuver in Iraq is limited' al-Bayati said.

'Election rhetoric does not make policies,' said al-Bayati, who is a member of the ruling Shiite United Iraqi Alliance. 'A policy should be made on a number of objective facts.'

Obama's goal of ending the war, however, finds sympathetic ears in Iraq. But even those who are agog that a US president hopeful is talking about ending occupation are cautiously optimistic.

'There is an urgent need for Obama to see in person the situation in Iraq and tell Iraqis of his vision regarding their country,' said Ezzat al-Shahbandar, an MP of the secular Iraqi List.

'He has an advantage in the presidential race after the big policy failure of US President George W Bush,' al-Shahbandar said. 'Any troop withdrawal, however, should come after careful consideration.'