ANALYSIS: Arab-Israeli peace on the backburner

By Dina Scheire Nov 9, 2008, 15:04 GMT

Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt - Palestinians who had entertained any faith in the political promises launched by world politicians that this year would bring them peace with Israel, an independent state and national reconciliation must have been sobered by the political events in Egypt this weekend.

A high-level meeting hosted by Egypt for international and regional players involved in the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations failed to deliver a concrete plan of action for the future of the negotiations process. And a meeting that Egypt was planning to host to promote civil Palestinian accord did not even materialize.

The ministerial-level meeting of the Quartet (the US, Russia, the EU and the UN) with Palestinian Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni agreed that Palestinian and Israeli negotiations launched last year in Annapolis would continue even as Israel prepares to go for elections in February next year, as Abbas attempts to garner support to extend his legal term office beyond its due date on 9 January and Barack Obama eases himself into the Oval Office.

Next spring the international and regional parties will go to Moscow for a new meeting that should take stock of the outcome of the negotiations scheduled for this winter and then decide the next move.

There is no timeline, however, to what should come next. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in Sharm el-Sheikh on Sunday that the ultimate objective is the realization of the two-state solution, a Palestinian and Israel, but there is no talk of when.

In Sharm el-Sheikh, Israel did not commit to suspend its settlement activities in occupied Palestinian territories. Neither did it commit any specific humanitarian package to ease the suffering of Palestinians under occupation, especially in Gaza.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said in a press conference in Sharm el-Sheikh on Sunday that he is 'deeply distressed about the plight of the civilian population in Gaza.'

In a meeting with Livni the UN chief said he would discuss possible measures, including removing road blocks and ending the demolition of houses, to reduce this suffering.

Meanwhile, there are more question marks than answers on the fate of a Palestinian national reconciliation meeting that Egypt was planning to hold Monday to end the divisions especially between Hamas, in control of Gaza, and Fatah, chaired by Abbas and exiled to the West Bank.

In Sharm el-Sheikh on Sunday Abbas said that he is still committed to work with Egypt to secure reconciliation.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit said that Cairo is still in touch with the Palestinian factions to iron out difficulties. Neither declared a tentative date for the meeting.

And judging by the accounts offered by Palestinian sources of different political affiliations and Arab diplomats it might be later rather than sooner.

'It is a tough problem because Hamas wants Abbas to commit to suspend the Palestinian Authority measures tailored to curtail the resistance activities. Obviously, due to his commitments to the Quartet Abbas cannot quite do that,' commented an informed Egyptian source who asked for his name to be withheld.

Egyptian officials privately blame Syria and Iran for blocking the Hamas participation. Syrian diplomats argue that Damascus cannot be party to the elimination of Palestinian resistance especially when peace seems so hard to get.

An Arab foreign ministers meeting that is scheduled to convene later this month at the Cairo headquarters of the Arab League could offer a room for an understanding. However, there are no guarantees for success.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem absented himself from a meeting that Egypt had invited him to, along with other concerned Arab foreign ministers and officials with the Quartet on Saturday in Sharm el-Sheikh.

Arab and international officials who met in Sharm el-Sheikh on Saturday and Sunday agreed that the hope to bring the peace process from the backburner relies strictly on the new US President Obama. High hopes and expectations were expressed for Obama's intervention.

Despite the cautious optimism within the official Arab quarters, it is not clear yet whether or not Obama would entertain a fast-tracked intervention in the Arab-Israeli struggle.

It is also not clear if Israel would still be ready to play by the Annapolis rules, if Likud leader Benyamin Netanyahu is elected Prime Minister next February.

Two things are clear, however. One, Arabs are not planning - at least not yet - an alternative plan for action should their hopes be turned down by Obama or squashed by Netanyahu.

Two, Palestinians are increasingly losing faith in the open-ended peace process and in the ability of Abbas and other Arab leaders to act in a way that would make this process productive.

The question is whether the melange of human suffering on the ground and the unproductive peace talks - despite the occasional announcement of progress - could induce a third Intifada.