ANALYSIS: Moussavi wants protests but no unrest

By Farshid Motahari Jun 25, 2009, 12:48 GMT

   Tehran - The unrest was initially over alleged fraud in the June 12 presidential elections, which led to the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and in support of Mir-Hossein Moussavi, who many see as the rightful winner.

   Since then hundreds of thousands have taken to the streets, from both camps, and officials from the two sides have been accusing each other of everything from cheating in the elections to having joined the counter-revolutionaries.

   But despite all the disputes, both camps unanimously insist that the aim is not to overthrow the whole regime but whether changes should be made.

   'The West has jumped to the premature conclusion that the protests were against the whole regime which never even crossed Moussavi's mind [0x2026] some of the Western media gave him an image which is their own wishful thinking,' one observer said.

   The former prime minister Moussavi, who has in the meantime emerged as the leader of the country's opposition, has in the last three decades indeed been a loyal part of the Islamic system.

   Just like the two ex-presidents, Mohammad Khatami and Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, Moussavi has realized the need for change.

   'We definitely have to stick to our principles (of the 1979 Islamic revolution) but upgrade and update them and especially make them compatible with the developments in today's world,' Moussavi said before and after the election.

   Also his supporters, known as the Green Wave - green is Moussavi's symbolic colour for change - follow Moussavi to achieve change within the system and not in opposition to it.

   'For radical changes we would have to pay radical taxes and sacrifice many Nedas (Agha-Hossein who was killed during protest demonstrations),' a member of the Moussavi camp said.

   Many observers believe that opposition groups, both inside and outside Iran, are trying to use the popularity of Moussavi and have their activities appear as pro-Moussavi ones.

   The opposition leader's official website has warned that all Moussavi's activities are announced through the website, and other activities are by groups unrelated to Moussavi.

   Both Moussavi and Khatami have blamed the government for encouraging internal and external misuse of the peaceful protests by radical measures such as banning local and international media from reporting the recent developments.

   Journalists in Tehran say that the ban has made platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube into news sources even for serious news media. Instead of objective journalism, the government has expanded the flow of unverified information, pictures and films, they say.

   'Bans and violence will just lead to more dangerous dimensions and forms of protests,' warned Khatami, for whom peaceful protests are in line with the constitution and cannot be banned by the Interior Ministry.

   The Interior Ministry sees it differently and has banned any form of protest. Police and even the country's revolutionary guards, who support Ahmadinejad, have confronted the protesters.

   The Moussavi camp has protested against presence of the police and security forces on the streets. Moussavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavardm, has even accused the government of bringing a 'martial law atmosphere' to the capital Tehran.

   Moussavi knows that any further demonstrations would just endanger more lives and he has asked his supporters to stage legal protests only, such as shouting Allah Akbar (God is Great) from their roofs as a sign of protest against what he considers a government that stole their votes.

   'I do not want one further drop of blood being wasted because of me,' Moussavi said.

   Moussavi met with senior academics, 70 of whom were later arrested because of meeting with the opposition leader.

   A number of deputies are reportedly also wondering whether the election results were really clean and if not, what form cooperation with the next government should take.

   One of these doubters is reportedly speaker Ali Larijani, who has grave differences with Ahmadinejad, which also led to his resignation as the president's chief nuclear negotiator and secretary of the supreme national security council.

   The majority of the 290 deputies blamed Larijani for not siding with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in fully acknowledging the election results and Ahmadinejad's re-election.

   Rafsanjani has been accused by Ahmadinejad of corruption. The moderate cleric backs Moussavi and is known as a fierce opponent of the president.

   Larijani had called on police and security forces to refrain from using violence against demonstrators. He also said that although the legislative body the Guardian Council was legally in charge of approving election results, this time its members should be more thorough with their reviews.

   The council eventually did that and extended, with the approval of Khamenei, the review process, which was supposed to be finished by June 24, by five more days.

   'This is the way it should be done,' said a university professor, who like all other sources asked not to be named due to the sensitive situation in the country.

   According to the professor, Ahmadinejad's re-election could ultimately not be challenged, mass protest rallies would just bring more bloodshed but few results, and arguing with the leader would turn the reformist movement into dissidents trying to topple the system.

   'But sharing protests with relevant circles could enable Moussavi and his aides like Khatami and Rafsanjani to gradually win more support for their aims and eventually push Ahmadinejad and his people into a corner and one day he would be forced to withdraw [0x2026] Allah Akbar,' the professor said.