ANALYSIS: Mideast experts sceptical on Mideast peace talks' success

By Abdul Jalil Mustafa Aug 30, 2010, 13:17 GMT

Amman - The upcoming direct talks in Washington between the Palestinians and Israel stand a very slim chance of success, simply because US President Barack Obama is 'unable' to force Israel to toe the line, Middle Eastern academics and analysts said Monday.

They cited Obama's failure during four months of US-brokered proximity talks to convince the right-wing Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop settlement building in East Jerusalem, which the Palestinians and other Arabs insist should be the capital of any Palestinian state.

'Obama realizes that he is unable to do anything and that his invitation for direct talks will turn out to be nothing more than a public relations campaign,' Ghazi Rababaa, political science professor at the University of Jordan, told German Press Agency dpa.

'The US president's real objective behind calling direct talks at this juncture is to improve his Democratic Party's chances in the coming congressional elections and to prop up his retreating popularity,' he said.

Rababaa said Obama's failure over the past year to get Israel to stop settlement building in East Jerusalem was a precursor to Netanyahu stipulating this week that any Palestinian state should accept the Jewish nature of Israel as well as the deployment of Israeli troops along the border with Jordan.

'This means the talks are heading to failure before they start, because the Jewish nature of Israel cannot be accepted by the Palestinians, as it means the eventual deportation of Palestinians living in Israel and the impossible return of Palestinian refugees to their homes' they fled upon the establishment of Israel in 1948, he said.

According to UN General Assembly resolution 194 of 1948, Palestinian refugees have the right to return to their homes and to receive compensation.

The issues of refugees, frontiers and Jerusalem are among the final status questions which Netanyahu refused to consider during indirect talks underway since April.

Rababaa said that the relaunch of direct talks in Washington with Netanyahu's participation 'will give the false impression to the world that his extremist government is seeking the establishment of peace.'

In addition to Netanyahu, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and the representative for the Middle East quartet, Tony Blair, Jordan's King Abdullah II and Egyptian President Hosny Mubarak will also attend.

Jordan and Egypt were picked to join the conference since they are the only two Arab states to have concluded official peace treaties with Israel, Oreib Rentawi, director of the Amman-based al-Quds Centre for Political Studies, said.

Jordanian and other Arab editorialists have expressed fears that the involvement of Jordan and Egypt could provide a 'cover-up' for Netanyahu's government to go ahead with unilateral machinations in East Jerusalem and the West Bank.

Netanyahu confirmed on Sunday that his government intended to end the freeze on settlement building in the West Bank when it expires on September 26.

'I don't believe the direct talks will lead to a peace agreement, simply because the Israelis are unable and unwilling to work out such settlement,' Rentawi told dpa.

'The Israelis are apparently in a bid to win time. This is clear from their insistence on the Jewish nature of their state and their emphasis on the security doctrine,' he said.

Rentawi pointed out that Obama had succeeded in putting pressure on Abbas to withdraw preconditions for talks - such as the cessation of settlement building and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital.

'On the other hand, Obama had backed down twice versus Netanyahu over the past year, giving the impression that he is unable to put any pressure on Israel to comply with the requirements of peace as provided for in the quartet's statements,' he said.

The quartet said in its latest statement last week that the direct talks should 'lead to a settlement, negotiated between the parties, that ends the occupation which began in 1967 and results in the emergence of an independent, democratic and viable Palestinian state living sided by side in peace and security with Israel and its other neighbours.'

The Palestinians, Egypt and Jordan are pushing for the provisions of the Arab peace initiative, which offers Israel recognition by all Arab states if it pulls out from all Arab lands it occupied in the 1967 war, including East Jerusalem, he said.