ANALYSIS: Rhetoric sounds right, but peace process still threatened

By Jeff Abramowitz Sep 2, 2010, 11:42 GMT

Tel Aviv - Israelis and Palestinians renew peace talks Thursday, and so far the public rhetoric has sounded right.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke of a peace from which everyone would gain, and said it was possible to achieve it.

President Mahmoud Abbas said Palestinians wanted to put an end to the conflict in the Middle East.

President Barack Obama, who is hosting the talks, called on the sides not to miss the opportunity to make peace.

But the test whether the negotiations will succeed, whether the two-day Washington peace fest will yield a genuine peace process, lies not in public statements as predictable as they are grandiose.

Only when the negotiators are locked in the room and talking to each other, will it be possible to gauge just how real the chances are for a peace deal in this latest incarnation of Israeli- Palestinian negotiations.

The buildup to the Washington parley was not promising. Few disguised their scepticism, and each side barely made any attempt to hide its distrust of the other.

But even if the initial meetings on Thursday go smoothly, and the sides emerge smiling and talking about their renewed commitment to find a solution to the conflict, they will still have to deal with two issues which overshadow the process and could bring it to a premature and acrimonious end.

The most immediate, or at least most prominent, threat, concerns Israel's building freeze in the West Bank.

The partial, 10-month moratorium, declared by Netanyahu last November is due to end on September 26.

Palestinians have threatened a walkout from the talks if it is not extended. Some of Netanyahu's coalition partners, whose support he needs to get right-wing backing for any possible deal, are threatening a walkout from the government if it is.

In a statement released after his talks with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Netanyahu said the moratorium was in effect until the end of September.

He added that the issue of West Bank settlements could not be dealt with separately from the other issues which were part of the negotiations for a final deal.

Both sides may be using the construction moratorium issue to test the other. Both may be waiting for the other to blink first. Both may be holding on to it so as to have an excuse to blame the other side if the talks don't work.

September 26 will provide the answer to the question of how serious this issue is.

The other threat concerns the Iranian-backed Palestinian militant groups, who, as they have done in the past, are determined to blow up a peace process they do not support.

Even before the meetings Wednesday which kicked off the Washington parleys, Hamas gunmen shot dead four Israelis driving in the West Bank.

It was a transparent ploy to try and torpedo the talks before they even began, but all sides said they intended continuing with the talks.

On Wednesday, as Obama was preparing to host the Middle East leaders for a ceremonial dinner, Hamas gunmen shot at a car in the northern West Bank, injuring two Israelis

This attack too did not cause a walkout, but an attack with massive Israeli casualties could have a different effect, as could a concerted shooting or bombing or rocket campaign once the peace process gets properly going again.

The shooting attacks - and Hamas has promised more - highlight the problem, that until the militant groups which reject permanent accommodation with Israel are neutralised, peace may be achieved, but it will be difficult, if not more or less impossible, to implement.

Following the first attack, Abbas' Palestinian Authority launched a crackdown on Hamas, arresting hundreds of operatives in the West Bank.

While this shows the West that Abbas is determined to crack down on militants, it also lays him open to charges that he is doing Israel's dirty work for it, a charge which undermines him among his own electorate.

It could also lead to an open, violent, confrontation between Abbas and the Islamist organization. The last such confrontation saw Abbas' men routed and Hamas seize security control of the Gaza Strip.

Any Hamas resurgence in the West Bank as well, will make the peace process irrelevant, and unless some form of accommodation is found with the Hamas administration in the Gaza Strip, a peace deal featuring a Palestinian state will be incomplete.