PREVIEW: Mideast volatile again as Merkel heads to Jerusalem

By Joerg Blank Jan 28, 2011, 18:03 GMT

Berlin - Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and key ministers are set to arrive in Jerusalem on Monday at a moment when the Middle East is extraordinarily volatile.

With anti-government demonstrations sweeping Egypt, a new and unknown government taking over Lebanon and bitterness over revelations in the leaked Palestinian papers, the big diplomatic issues will dominate the agenda.

It was not planned thus. The two cabinets were supposed to hold inter-governmental consultations, their third such round, on fairly prosaic matters in a conscious display of normalcy: science cooperation, renewable energy and youth exchanges were on the agenda.

Statements by government spokesmen on Egypt Friday gave a tangible indication of how shaken by the changes Berlin is.

On the one hand, Merkel backed the demands of the protests for democracy in Egypt. Her foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle, appealed to the administration of Hosny Mubarak not to shoot protesters.

But at the same time, he vocalized Berlin's apprehension about where this is going as Mubarak, 82, who has ruled Egypt for nearly 30 years, hangs on.

'Those who try to violently suppress the desire for freedom will harvest extremism,' said Westerwelle, who will also be on the plane to Jerusalem.

Merkel's spokesman cautiously said that Egypt needs reforms to open up its economy and fight poverty, but went on to praise Mubarak's Egypt as an 'anchor of stability in the whole region,' both in the Mideast peace process and in resisting Islamist extremism.

The undertone was nervousness about where Egypt is headed if the protesters manage to sweep Mubarak and his officials from power.

The other largely incalculable political factor in Germany's perspective is located on Israel's northern border, where a 'political change of emphasis,' as they say in diplomat-speak, has just taken place.

Merkel is very much aware of how the new government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who is backed by Israel's enemy Hezbollah, is bound to lead to a worsening of relations between Lebanon and Israel.

Merkel is also sure to raise the topic of Iran with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the implications of the failure of recent talks in Istanbul to reach an agreement over Iran's nuclear programme.

It seems unlikely there will be anything very concrete said about the latter issue.

As for the Mideast peace process, despite Merkel's leadership role in the European Union, there seems little prospect she can have much impact. Off the record, her aides say she has no exaggerated notion of her influence on the process.

But they add, 'Doing nothing at all about it is not an alternative either.'

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