Merkel and the ticking clock of Middle East peace

By Joerg Blank May 5, 2011, 16:14 GMT

Berlin - German Chancellor Angela Merkel scheduled a generous 90 minutes in her diary for Thursday's talks in Berlin with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

However the conversation was unlikely to dry up as the leaders approached one of Merkel's pet issues - the Middle East peace process, which has stagnated for months.

Merkel - an avowed pro-Israeli - expressed her anger in January at Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu's controversial plans to extend settlements in the occupied territories.

The chancellor, who has long fought for a two-state-solution, demanded a policy shift and set a deadline, calling for concrete action by the second half of the year, before the looming 2012 United States presidential election closed the window of opportunity.

Since then, however, the situation has changed dramatically in the Middle East. While Egypt has returned to relative stability, Libya is now in turmoil. On Israel's doorstep, the Syrian government is using force to crack down on protesters.

And on Wednesday, Abbas, leader of the Fatah party, and Hamas- leader Khaled Mashaal shook hands in Cairo on a reconciliation deal which ended a bitter four-year-long dispute between the two largest Palestinian factions.

While German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle expressed scepticism at the move, Merkel's office saw an opportunity in the reconciliation, which could promote peace in the region.

A Palestinian state was unimaginable while its two key factions fought each other, said sources close to Merkel. In this respect, the reconciliation was a step forward to a Palestinian future - whatever shape this may take.

Over dinner, Merkel was due to ask Abbas how he interpreted the new situation. The two go back a long way, and are said to get on well.

At the same time, sources said the chancellor would remain tough on key issues, including a rejection of violence, recognition of Israel's right to exist and a commitment to past Israeli-Palestinian agreements.

These are the conditions set by the so-called Quartet of United States, Russia, the European Union and the United Nations, and have so far been rejected by Islamist Hamas.

In particular, Merkel wanted to make it clear to secular party leader Abbas that both sides had to be willing to compromise, insiders said.

On Wednesday Netanyahu made it clear that he was unwilling to cede any ground, stressing that Fatah had to 'choose between a peace with Israel or a peace with Hamas.' Peace with both was impossible, he said.

His remark met with disappointment in Berlin, after Merkel had spent months pressing home to Netanyahu that the changes in the region were also creating opportunities to negotiate a solution.

Merkel-associates said this effort appeared to be in vain, as there was no sign that Israel would take the brave steps required to broker a solution.

The current situation could also place new strains on relations within the European Union, if no signs of progress are forthcoming.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has indicated that he would take action if the situation was unchanged in September. In this case, France could push for the United Nations General Assembly to unilaterally recognize the Palestinian state - a move Merkel has always ruled out.

Yet the optimists in Berlin hope that France and Germany could yet apply concerted pressure. Sarkozy was due to meet Netanyahu in Paris, shortly before Merkel and Abbas met in Berlin.

It would not necessarily harm the peace process if France hinted at the consequences for Israel should it refuse to budge from its position, some analysts speculated.

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