ANALYSIS: Tehran embassy attack has rapid repercussions

Dec 1, 2011, 11:06 GMT

Tehran - What began as a routine demonstration in front of Tehran's British embassy spiralled out of control when protesters stormed the compound - triggering a major diplomatic row and explusions.

Initially, everything was routine, with some 500 students assembled outside the embassy on Tuesday, chanting familiar anti-British slogans.

But instead of going home, a bunch of rowdy protesters stormed the embassy, replacing the Union Jack with the Iranian flag, setting fire to vehicles and tearing up documents and pictures of Queen Elizabeth II.

In response, London recalled its Tehran embassy staff and ordered Iran's diplomats to leave Britain, prompting a tit-for-tat retaliation from Iran.

'What happened in Tehran was unpredictable and made by some angry protesters,' said Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast on Wednesday, attempting to distance the government from the embassy attack.

'It was not intended, but not clever either and thus took an unfortunate course,' agreed one political scientist in Tehran.

'To decide in parliament to expel the ambassador, then allow incited students to demonstrate 48 hours later, without knowing what they are capable of, and then act surprised - that won't work,' added the academic, who wished to remain anonymous.

Iran also underestimated the subsequent solidarity within the European Union. Tehran's demand that EU members should not follow London's example fell on deaf ears. Several, including France and Germany, have recalled their ambassadors 'for consultations.'

Meanwhile, Israel could stand to profit from the diplomatic fallout.

'The EU would have blocked a military attack against Iranian nuclear sites, as desired by Israel, but after this provocation Israel's position has been strengthened,' said one Arab diplomat in Tehran.

The incident also highlights a problem that the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has with the parliament - which tends to quickly reach radical decisions.

Following the recent assessment by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that Iran has tested designs for a nuclear warhead, legislators wanted to reconsider Iran's cooperation with the IAEA, but they were reigned in for fear of negative consequences.

The government failed to act with the same speed when parliament passed a motion to expel the British ambassador, over London's decision to impose further sanctions following the IAEA report.

'You don't just throw out the ambassador if you don't like a country's decision,' said a former Iranian officer. But the parliament remains outspoken.

'Britain has always behaved unashamedly towards Iran, so the students were carrying out the will of popular opinion,' said parliamentary spokesman Ali Larijani.

Conservative legislator Alireza Zakani went further still. 'The students' action is based on a holy anger,' he said.

Ahmadinejad's government now faces a major political dilemma. It could follow parliament and stick to a strict interpretation of the Iranian revolution, or think pragmatically and back down in the current diplomatic spat.

'The incident now overshadows the nuclear row and is effectively a green light for more harsh sanctions, if not more, such as a military intervention as Israel has always wanted,' said one Iranian journalist.

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