YEARENDER: Iraq faces toughest test after US troops withdraw

By Joseph Nasr and Kadhim al-Attabi Dec 7, 2011, 2:06 GMT

Baghdad - Iraq next year faces its potentially toughest challenge since the fall of Saddam Hussein, after US troops complete their withdrawal following an almost nine-year presence that appears to have failed to overcome sectarian violence.

Attacks by insurgents killed more than 1,000 Iraqis in the first eight months of 2011 - far fewer than the peak of violence in 2006, when around 16,500 deaths were recorded.

But military experts still doubt whether Iraq's ill-trained and poorly equipped army can contain the violence and prevent a slide into civil war, once the US military is gone.

US General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last month that, while the country's security forces were theoretically capable of dealing with insurgents, 'more work must be done for the Iraqis to better confront internal and external aggression.'

However, Dempsey said that insurgency and political tensions among sectarian and religious groups were not the biggest risk to Iraq's stability.

'The more serious threat comes from malign Iranian influence that undermines political progress,' he said in reference to Iraq's eastern neighbour, adding that the US army would continue to provide Baghdad with training and advice.

US troop withdrawal is a divisive issue for Iraqis, and the form and shape of any future US military presence in the country is still unclear.

The Sunni Muslim minority which ruled under Saddam Hussein, and the Kurds who enjoy semi-autonomy in the north, prefer a sizable long-term US military presence, as a deterrent against domination by the Shiite majority, backed by neighbouring Iran.

But other groups oppose even the idea of a small US presence to train Iraqi security forces.

Influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who this year returned to Iraq after four years of exile in Iran, has vowed to launch an insurgency against any US troops that stay beyond the year-end deadline.

'There could be agreements between Iraq and the United States to keep a US military presence for regional reasons related to Iran's role in Iraq in the future, and for internal reasons such as maintaining security,' said Hussein Hafez of the University of Baghdad.

'Such issues will probably be discussed in secrecy, away from the media,' Hafez added.

'Iran will remain a source of concern for Iraq,' the analyst said. 'I also think it will seek to push for a strong role for some Shiite groups, similar to what it is doing with Hezbollah in Lebanon.'

'It seems that Iran's role in Iraq will become more prominent after the US withdrawal,' Hafez concluded.

Under Saddam Hussein, Iraq and Shiite Iran fought a devastating war in the 1980s.

The fall of the former dictator in 2003 freed Iraq's Shiite majority from years of oppression and enabled Iran to leverage its historical and religious Shiite ties to have a say in its neighbour's affairs.

Iraq's Sunni Muslims generally have closer religious, cultural and economic links with the Arab world and Turkey, which is locked in a domestic conflict with Kurdish separatists.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki also has to prevent political bickering between various sectarian and religious groups from weakening the central government and leading to regional separatism.

Oil exploration deals, signed this year between US oil giant Exxon Mobil and the Kurdish regional government, deepened a political quarrel with Maliki's government, which deemed the agreements illegal and threatened to impose sanctions on the US company.

The deal highlighted the threat that political wrangling poses to the oil industry, which is the country's main exporter and generates the bulk of government revenue.

Sunni Arabs are also pushing for more autonomy in their provinces.

The governor of the Salah al-Din province, north of Baghdad, vowed last month to go ahead with plans for autonomy, drawing censure from al-Maliki, who said such move would turn the province into a refuge for former members of Saddam Hussein's now-disbanded Baath Party.

Politician Wael Abdel Latif said that Iraq's major political players must take responsibility for political stability after the US withdrawal, adding that failure to do so would weaken the central government and lead to an 'Arab Spring of a different kind.'

'Iraq is going through a very dangerous phase and the situation will become clearer once the Americans withdraw and the extent of meddling by Iran and Turkey - which goes back 1500 years - becomes clear,' Abdel Latif said. 'It seems they want to return with more bloodshed.'