ANALYSIS: Iran's rockets and fuel rods: a call to arms or to talks?

By Farshid Motahari Jan 2, 2012, 11:56 GMT

Tehran - For anyone thinking Iran might be suffering from weakness, the country has been in overdrive the last few days to prove the opposite.

The cascade of news from Iran has included announcements of the country's first domestically produced fuel rods - a major first for a nation chasing a nuclear programme - and semi-official threats to block shipments of oil through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a clear response to sanctions meant to hem in the aforementioned nuclear work.

If those two announcements were too subtle, recently concluded military manoeuvres in the Persian Gulf - where cruise missiles were fired across the body of water - were named 'Strength.'

'No one can cow us, we will not yield a single centimetre,' said President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in recent comments.

But are the signs of bravado true shows of strength? Or are they merely efforts to project strength - real or imagined - to Western powers? Iran sees them as unfairly trying to stop its progress toward developing a nuclear programme, which it insists will be peaceful, even as outsiders worry the country is pursuing a bomb.

The goal, apparently, is to convince Western powers to join Iran at the negotiation table - Iranian officials announced over the weekend that they were ready to restart talks about its nuclear work - without compromising the country's goals.

The fact is that recent sanctions placed by the United States upon Iran's central bank cannot be ignored by the theocratic state.

Nor can Iran brush aside recently announced weapons deals whereby the US will sell billions of dollars worth of armaments to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which many say are aimed at helping those nations to contain Iran.

That leads to a delicate game, whereby Iran has to show its power, but not do anything so severe as to warrant further clampdowns.

The back and forth over the last week about the Hormuz shipments is a clear case in point. After more incendiary comments about a possible closure earlier in the week, a top naval official tried to ratchet back the war of words.

'We are after peace and security and free shipping and not after closing the Strait of Hormuz,' Deputy Navy Commander Admiral Mahmoud Moussavi told the ISNA news agency.

'But we have a share of the strait and if our interests were jeopardized, then the interests of others (Gulf Arab states) would be jeopardized as well,' he said.

Hormuz is one of Iran's most effective bargaining chips at the moment. A blockade could endanger 40 per cent of the global oil trade.

Its cruise missiles are another potential threat, especially after their recent successful test and announcements of plans to upgrade them and give them a wider range.

At the core of the myriad debates are the concerns and fears about Iran's nuclear programme. Western powers have demanded that Iran give up attempts to gain the ability to enrich uranium, a demand Iran rejects, even as it calls for international recognition as a nuclear power with the ability to enrich uranium.

'Iran knows that it cannot consider any compromises on its nuclear programme,' said one Tehran-based political scientist. 'The country is hoping that, by virtue of military strength and further development of its nuclear know-how, that it can force the other side to compromise.'

That tallies with the weekend's news that Iranian technicians have successfully crafted the country's first domestically produced nuclear fuel rods, for use in the capital's medical research reactor. If true, it would be a major step forward for Iran's nuclear credentials.

The new fuel rods require uranium enriched to a level of 20 per cent, which the country apparently can produce with no problem.

'We don't want all this, but if there is no international cooperation, then we'll do it ourselves,' said Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi.

There had been past deals to secure Russian and French help in creating the fuel rods, but those plans fell apart.

'We'll stop this work as soon as we get them from abroad,' says Ahmadinejad.

The continuous sabre-rattling has begun to worry some in Iran.

'It seems serious this time,' says Mohsen S, a Tehran student.

Kazem M, a retired banker, said the US sanctions upon the central bank seem to have opened a new chapter in the country's external relations.

'I've always been an optimist, but this time there's a sense of trouble.'

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