ANALYSIS: Netanyahu remains king of Israel's right-wing

By Ofira Koopmans Feb 1, 2012, 15:49 GMT

Tel Aviv - Benjamin Netanyahu cemented his position Wednesday as the leader of Israel's right-wing, with a victory in his Likud's party internal leadership ballot - thereby strengthening his hold on the premiership.

'We've proved together that the Likud is a strong, united party,' he told cheering supporters, who shouted 'Hooray Bibi' - the premier's nickname.

Netanyahu spoke in Tel Aviv early Wednesday, moments after a convincing win in the leadership of Israel's ruling party.

'We will continue to lead the country with unity and for the sake of all its citizens,' he vowed.

Netanyahu won three-quarters of the vote of Likud members, compared with a quarter for his only challenger: Moshe Feiglin, a zealous West Bank settler, who wants to draw the nationalist party away from the mainstream right.

Netanyahu may be controversial, even unpopular, abroad. Domestically, he appears practically glued to the seat of power.

Opinion polls indicate that the Likud under the 62-year old would, if elections were held today, emerge stronger than ever.

It would retain its 27 mandates in the Knesset, Israel's 120-seat parliament, or even gain a few more, according to a host of surveys published over the past weeks.

By contrast, the opposition Kadima party risks losing about half its 28 mandates, most of which would go to a charismatic former news anchor, Yair Lapid, who has announced he is entering politics.

Netanyahu's popularity mystifies foreign audiences, given that for the past nearly three years of his tenure, the stalled peace process with the Palestinians has not progressed and Israel's international isolation has worsened.

But other issues, mostly socio-economic, worry Israelis more. The next Israeli elections are scheduled for October 2013, but officials close to Netanyahu suggest he may well bring them forward by one year.

Early elections would give the centrist Kadima less time to rehabilitate itself and close ranks, after its own March 27 primaries. A bitter battle is expected between party chairwoman Tzipi Livni and her rival Shaul Mofaz, over whom she has a slight lead.

Netanyahu may also want to hold them before the US presidential elections. Republican candidates, plus President Barack Obama, have upped their pro-Israeli rhetoric ahead of the November poll.

Netanyahu already has a difficult and strained relationship with Obama - further difficulties if the Democrat wins a second term might impact on Netanyahu's own popularity.

Lastly, discussions on Israel's bi-annual budget are due to start this summer. Netanyahu 'will not be afraid' of early elections if coalition partners try to inflate the budget, one associate told Israel biggest-selling daily, Yediot Ahronot.

But if Netanyahu does remain in office until the end, he will be the first Israeli premier since 1988 to complete a full term.

However, whether held early or not, much can change before the next election.

For one, Israel's attorney general is expected in the coming weeks to announce whether Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu's largest coalition partner, will be indicted over fraud. It is still unclear how that would affect Israeli politics.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu continues to walk the tightrope between international and internal pressure.

The Likud, he promised cheering party members - some 9 per cent of whom are settlers - 'is committed to settlement of the Land of Israel.'

At the same time, he has reportedly discreetly removed West Bank settlements from a list of Israeli communities eligible for economic stimulus, days after his cabinet authorized the list Sunday.

Netanyahu's victory comes as the Palestinians are deliberating breaking off talks begun in Jordan, citing the fact taht Israel has not frozen settlement activity, nor submitted clear proposals on the negotiating issues of borders and security.

Is Netanyahu, after Wednesday's result and in the time left before the elections, more likely to try bold moves with the Palestinians?

His strength in the Likud and in the polls, promised the official close to him, 'will be expressed in the diplomatic (peace process) and economic initiatives that he will seek to promote.'

On the other hand, why take risks if already popular?

As television pundit Emanual Rosen put it: 'The best thing you can do as an Israeli prime minister, is not do anything. Because all prime ministers who did something were either assassinated or toppled.'